This is a misunderstanding of what math is, I think. You can invent a perfectly valid mathematical theory that conflicts with observations. Math is just a sequence of "if this, then this" and if the conclusions follow from the premises, it's math. But if you demonstrate that in the universe we occupy, a premise isn't true, then the mathematical theory isn't any less valid, it's just not sound in our universe.
For example, there's a ton of completely valid mathematical work on the correspondence between anti-de Sitter spaces and Conformal Field Theory. However, much of this mathematics has no application in our universe, because our universe seems to be a de Sitter space (positive cosmological constant/expanding), not an anti-de Sitter space (negative cosmological constant/contracting). That doesn't make their math invalid, it just makes it not real.
You can also do a lot of math in Minkowski spaces, which are flat. But our universe isn't flat, it's curved. Doesn't mean it's not math, just that it's not real in our universe.
But, I say the math can’t be invalidated by observations; and you describe some cases where the math is valid but might or might not be applicable to certain physical cases. So actually, I’m not clear as to what you are saying I’m misunderstanding.
I took your word "invalidate" to mean "be proven false" whereas I meant "valid" as in "logically coherent, even if not true."
I meant, isn't a counter-example or proof by contradiction an invalidation by a type of observation?
Meaning that even if the inductive logic is 100% correct, the theory can be incorrect due to using mutually exclusive (in some non-obvious way) axioms.
That a given model is the one and only model that accurately explains the known universe? Then I agree. Observation won’t get you there. Asymptotic at best.
But by “prove”, that it accurately or usefully makes predictions with respect to certain constraints (which may not be known)?
That’s a more modest use of “prove”, where observation is certainly a key factor.
With that in mind, "prove" is perfectly fine to use in the context of science.
For instance, you can prove that Newton's laws are not 100% accurate.
You can’t prove anything by observation. You can gather evidence through repeat experiment and become reasonably confident as your theory continues to not be incompatible with the observed universe. Then the problem of induction says, “well, it isn’t incompatible with the part of the universe… that you’ve observed, yet!” And then you say, “ok, but I want to use my theory to invent an iPhone, and I think there are enough people in the part of the universe that I’ve already observed. I looked very hard to find evidence against my theory, and I don’t think anyone will find evidence against it before I’ve sold enough iPhones to retire.”
Math, of course, is that stuff which can’t be invalidated by observations. But it is very hard to do enough math to retire off it.