Also, I doubt this will exist in isolation. It will probably be built in places that already have demand for hydrogen, available land, have accessible energy, a good grid connection, and existing iron-ore infrastructure. It will be built in such a way to minimise costs and maximise available customers.
I absolutely agree that we should bet on the battery industry. But there is a difference. With battery technology the cost of storing 1GWh is fully coupled to the cost of the equipment. That is not the case when you can store something. It could run for longer durations with the same cost in equipment. You just store more fuel.
Another factor here is industrial capacity. Battery production has amazing capacity for growth. But that is not a zero-sum game. Other parts of industry could also be scaled up.
Its interesting how similar this thread is to debates I have had with people about solar/wind/battery storage. We take one measure and then focus on that exclusively. Whilst ignoring the wider commercial, industrial and technical factors.
It’s annoying that they always seem to contain some hand-wavy efficiency calculations. I think this one didn’t even consider the losses from hydrogen production? Is there a benchmark out there, of these long-term electricity storage solutions? Like: you get 1 MWh at 25 deg C, and 6 months later, it’s measured how much your system restores. Everything taken from the grid during storage for upkeep or kickstarting the process is subtracted as well.