Maybe a better argument is, “when you’re setting a phone alarm, you don’t tell it a timezone.” Maybe the distinction is whether the timezone is established at write time or read time.
Which coincidentally and ironically makes phone alarms surprisingly difficult to implement in a way that does not break in the face of DST shifts, timezone changes etc., as Apple has learned the hard way a couple of times.
Past/future does matter, as generally speaking it's possible to accurately convert between local time and UTC for times in the past, but not in the future.
There's a few exceptions where governments have retroactively changed timezones or DST rules, but at that point you've lost anyway.
The future is defined by intent which is imprecise (will Oregon drop daylight savings time or not — who knows?). I don’t know how many seconds it is until my next birthday, but I know exactly how many have passed since I was born.
I can tell you from bitter experience that if you have an event where a person has to arrive at a place at a time and you store that as UTC instead of wall clock, you will have a problem at some point