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A comment on What if Germany had invested in nuclear power?.

Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by pdubouilh on Saturday August 24, 2024 @05:54AM (#41336945)
ABSTRACT: Germany has one of the most ambitious energy transition policies dubbed ‘Die Energiewende’ to replace nuclear- and fossil power with renewables such as wind-, solar- and biopower. The climate gas emissions are reduced by 25% in the study period of 2002 through 2022. By triangulating available information sources, the total nominal expenditures are estimated at EUR 387 bn, and the associated subsidies are some EUR 310 bn giving a total nominal expenditures of EUR 696 bn. Alternatively, Germany could have kept the existing nuclear power in 2002 and possibly invest in new nuclear capacity. The analysis of these two alternatives shows that Germany could have reached its climate gas emission target by achieving a 73% cut in emissions on top of the achievements in 2022 and simultaneously cut the spending in half compared to Energiewende. Thus, Germany should have adopted an energy policy based on keeping and expanding nuclear power.
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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by KingOfCoders on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:15AM (#41337295)
We won't settle this debate (and I'm not against nuclear), but it's a discussion around "Do I need fire insurance when my house has a low chance to burn down" and should I use the money for something else.

If it doesn't burn down, you look great. If it burns down, you look like an idiot.

I think people will not understand (some|most) Germans if you haven't lived through Chernobyl and Pershing-II days, dying forrests (from East European coal plants) and also red terrorism (mid 70s, early 80s were a crazy time). The discussion is not a rational one but one out of trauma of that time.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by wrKaxnc on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:21AM (#41337314)
Germany is stationing nuclear capable missiles again, with the approval of the Green Party, which had been at the forefront of the anti Pershing-II protests but is now a war party:

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-shrugs-off-putin-comments-on-u...

If that is possible, why not pebble bed reactors?

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by fabian2k on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:34AM (#41337382)
They're conventional missiles, not nuclear. And nuclear capable is a bit misleading here as that capability was dismantled for the Tomahawk cruise missiles. Of course the US could add it back with some effort, but that goes for essentially every missile that is large enough.
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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by polotics on Saturday August 24, 2024 @08:08AM (#41337587)
A war party?

Si vis Pacem para Bellum!

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by oezi on Saturday August 24, 2024 @10:19AM (#41338514)
The age of Nuclear is over and won't be coming back. The technology trajectories are now just in favor of solar and batteries. Everything else has no chance.
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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by acchow on Saturday August 24, 2024 @03:44PM (#41340903)
China this week just approved 11 new nuclear power plants, including a 4th Gen. Last year they approved 10. They currently have 56 in operation.

I would hardly say the age of nuclear is over.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by oezi on Monday August 26, 2024 @02:13AM (#41354474)
Given that there are roughly 500 reactors in operation and they last up to 40-50 years, this is just keeping the status quo.

The share of nuclear electricity has been slipping.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by ViewTrick1002 on Monday August 26, 2024 @10:23AM (#41357418)
Authoritarian state still keeping a toe in for military and pragmatic reasons. With communistic 5 year plan system you can through sheer force build a few reactors to keep the option open.

For every passing year they’ve been pulling back their nuclear ambitions in favor of renewables.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/chinas-quiet-energy-revolution-t...

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by defensive7132 on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:18AM (#41337306)
I always supported nuclear power. It's just the best we have right now. Renewable power is all good and all, but technology is not there yet. Plus, many people in support of green energy never think about all the mining done for this and how it impacts and often destroys environments. It's OK when it's not your environment being hurt. :-)

Anyways, nuclear power is safer than people think. And most, if not all, nuclear power disasters were due to human error.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by aniviacat on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:23AM (#41337323)
> most, if not all, nuclear power disasters were due to human error

How is this less of an issue? Are modern reactors not built and operated by humans? We have better sensors and more digital components now, which reduce the risk. But the risk for a wind turbine is, and always was, zero.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by defensive7132 on Sunday August 25, 2024 @07:24AM (#41346455)
"risk of a wind turbine is, and always was, zero" seems like you need to check on how many people die a year while maintaining wind turbines.

Fukushima accident: corruption

Chernobyl: incompetence

Three mile island accident: that's a bit more nuanced than just human error, but nothing we haven't fixed already

SL-1: suicide-murder/human error

Those are the serious accidents. As you may see, all are perfectly fixable. Plus, current nuclear plants are more advanced. Now while you have on your mind these 4 accidents, consider that currently there are 403 in use plants and oldest one is over 60 years. All working with no issue.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by aniviacat on Sunday August 25, 2024 @03:19PM (#41350375)
How is human error fixable?
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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by defensive7132 on Tuesday August 27, 2024 @02:52PM (#41371334)
You mean corruption and incompetence isn't? It's not like someone accidentally pressed wrong button or something. There are clear issues which can be fixed with more regulations when building nuclear plants and who can operate them.

Can't say much for other two, since it's more just human error. One's more of a technical problem that was addressed poorly and other, too unique to happen again. People don't usually murder/suicide in nuclear plants.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by ViewTrick1002 on Monday August 26, 2024 @10:24AM (#41357431)
The difference is who gets harmed.

For solar and wind the general public generally can’t be affected by any accidents so the deaths are general work place hazards coming from working aloft with heavy equipment.

For nuclear power the public is on the hook for cleanup fees from hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars and the large scale accidents we have seen caused hundreds of thousands to get evacuated.

It is not even comparable. If I chose to not work in the solar and wind industry my chance of harm is as near zero as it gets. Meanwhile about all consequences from nuclear power afflicts the general public. Both in terms of costs, injuries and life changing evacuations.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by defensive7132 on Tuesday August 27, 2024 @02:58PM (#41371434)
If modern nuclear plants fail, they contain all hazards in a tomb under the plant. Fukushima was built not as it should have been due to corruption.

Your fear for nuclear plants failing is unreasonable. Do I have to mention again hundreds of plants running for decades without a problem?

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by jahnu on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:22AM (#41337319)
> Renewable power is all good and all, but technology is not there yet.

Actually it is and here is the best summary explaining why I know of:

https://www.volts.wtf/p/what-the-sun-isnt-always-shining

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by fabian2k on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:31AM (#41337361)
Human error makes it worse. We can fix technical issues, it is much harder to fix human nature and all the potential human causes for safety violations.
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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by ponorin on Saturday August 24, 2024 @08:32AM (#41337750)
In the winter of 2022, France had to restart permanently shut down coal plants[0] and pump gas to Germany[1] for electricity because of a pipe crack that made half of their nuclear plants go into maintenance. Note that this was on top of curtailing energy use (funny enough, because of gas, not nuclear[2]).

You could say "that was a once-in-a-lifetime kind of event!" (I'd love to have machine without flaws but nuclear fusion would be faster) but, if it wasn't for the European grid, this could have resulted in prolonged emergency saving measures or possibly a (partial) blackout. Nuclear power is often touted as the stable one, but ironically, solar and wind would not suffer from this kind of problem because they are inherently variable in output. If energy storage for renewables was already a headache, imagine an energy storage system for nuclear.

[0]: https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-france-climate-an...

[1]: https://web.archive.org/web/20230114183054/https://www.nytim...

[2]: https://web.archive.org/web/20240709121249/https://www.nytim...

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by AlphaGeekZulu on Saturday August 24, 2024 @08:37AM (#41337799)
"[...]And most, if not all, nuclear power disasters were due to human error.[...]"

And the remaining nuclear power disasters were due to unpredictable natural disasters.

So at what time exactly did we eliminate human error and unpredictable natural disasters, so that we don't have to worry about the dangers of nuclear power anymore? It seems, I somehow missed this two super important historic events...

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by rapnie on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:11AM (#41337282)
> Germany could have [..] [which] shows Germany could have [..] Thus, Germany should have [..]

Germany could have skipped the industrial revolution, so they should have reached their targets already.

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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by SiempreViernes on Saturday August 24, 2024 @07:32AM (#41337375)
No analysis of costs if Germany had adopted a strategy of transitioning to renewables in 2002 is offered, you are just meant to look at figure 2 and say take it on fait it is the result of a coherent green transition strategy rather than Germany dallying and going back to its traditional coal power.
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Re:What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? by oezi on Saturday August 24, 2024 @10:24AM (#41338544)
If 350bn is all we need to cut our emissions in Germany (we have a 4000bn annual GDP) by 75%, then I don't get what the big fuss about climate change is. Every industrial country could cough up such small an amount (loan, Fed printing money, etc).
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