Re:China's manufacturers are going broke
by sandspar on Saturday August 17, 2024 @04:35PM
(#41277750)
Judging from your post alone, you seem to have started with a conclusion ("China will collapse") and sought out evidence that will support your prejudgment. Also, the statistics you cite are less sophisticated than the statistics you'd find on a rag like CNN, so it's not even apparent whether you've done any serious research.
Chairman Xi is a dear leader now. Autocratic controls are coming down with force, and the free market reforms are being rescinded. This is not a competent autocracy, Xi has purged any competence from the central government.
China is also facing a massive financial house of cards and a real estate disaster.
China long term is facing an unprecedented demographic collapse in terms of raw numbers of people. Both Russia, who also face a massive demographic collapse, and China are masking their population losses and the sharp declines in population replacement.
The UN projects 100 million people less by 2050, but I personally think that demographic attrition will actually be in the 200 million range. I also think that China will suffer a massive country-wide food supply disruption either due to Taiwan aggression, economic depression, collective international isolation, or political collapse that will lead to a huge famine in that time span. Finally, the population will age considerably, so even if the "loss" in absolute terms is only 100-150 million people, the collective productivity loss will be shockingly high.