There are some very successful entrepreneurs who made their fortunes off of in-game trading that would disagree.
How so? A handful of people make money out of ANY novelty. A handful of people making money of it, is actually, the very characteristic of a novelty.
A handful of people made money off of hula-hups, the rubik cube, and yo-yos...
But there are people out there making gobs of money off of the trade of virtual items and then manipulation of virtual economies, and not by enabling it (although that is also profitable) or by doing it as a parlor trick for others' amusement, but by the same means as any other economy is exploited.
In particular, what makes this not a novelty is that the attraction that these people have to it is not that it is a video game, or that the idea is new and interesting, but that it is simply an unexploited opportunity.
In game economy is nascent but becoming more complex every day. It required Valve to hire an economist. It may have been a novelty. But for how long?
> Games cannot really go "underground" though.
I meant the economy will go underground to meet the demand of in game favors.
No. Alcohol and drugs are with us from the beginning of history, are very much ingrained in human society and culture, and support trillion dollar worldwide industries.
In-game trading virtual goods is a niche novelty activity, and trading them for real money even more so. You can get the same satisfaction out of the game trading them with token money.
>It will push the activity to go underground.
Games cannot really go "underground" though. They are sold in stores or accessed online and depend on massive communities of millions of players. It's not like Sims of Farville can go underground suddenly.
Nor are they as essential and addicting as alcohol/drugs.