the yen carry trade has apparent unwound around 50% https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240809244/sto.... let's see what happens when the remaining 50% is unwound in the next few months, as investors are selling risky assets in US and Europe (and even riskier assets in China, if they haven't already) and moving cash back to Japan to convert to yen. the world economy will be very volatile until the yen carry trade unwind completes.

> ...HN will deny that the US economy is cratering, I will be downvoted to hell for saying so...

You may think you're being downvoted because people disagree that the US economy is cratering.

No, I don't think that's the case. You're being downvoted for making unsubstantiated shallow statements, that don't add value or contribute to the discussion. Per the guidelines: "Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive."

Also: "A good critical comment teaches us something."

I do think the US economy is in a dire state. Federal spending is the highest point has even been (pandemic aside) [1], our national debt has skyrocketed to $35T, and we're nowhere near having a sane bipartisan conversation during this election cycle. In the best-case scenario, it'll take another 4 years for us to start facing the reality, and then a decade or two to improve it.

If you have a robust and unbiased perspective, based on data, I'd love to hear more. And I bet you upvotes will follow (or at least you don't be downvoted).

[1] https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/feder...

There is room yet to erode the dollar to inflate asset prices. High asset prices equal a strong economy, right?

Doomsayers have predicted 16 of the past 2 recessions, in addition to issuing two decades of annual forecasts for the collapse of China 'any minute now'.

It's not a particularly helpful, or interesting viewpoint. A stopped clock is eventually right, but I wouldn't set my schedule to one.

----

But if you're still confident in this, buy puts.

If you're right, you'll be rich in dollars, which might ameliorate some of your losses of internet karma points.

If you're wrong, well, I suppose it would imply that the negative karma is deserved.

>Doomsayers have predicted 16 of the past 2 recessions

8 out of 1 seems like a pretty good track record, right?

(Aside: Psst. Junior, remove my tongue from my cheek, will you?)

Cratering for short, long or indefinite term that's the real question.

It's US election time and people go crazy with mental gymnastics to protect their team if they are in power, or exaggerate if the other team is. Not a great time to discuss things objectively.