Still can't believe you can build a career in this business out of saying we'll have more advanced technologies in the future. Slap a number on it while you're at it. Sell a book.

The trick, I guess, is to have well-reasoned arguments and be somewhat accurate in your predictions.

He's done a bunch of other stuff also. Synthesisers, OCR, National Medal of Technology and Innovation, Lemelson–MIT Prize National Inventors Hall of Fame etc.

Perhaps the first thing that a millionfold expanded intelligence would do is not make predictions that have no basis.

This!

Any prediction beyond 2 years out is probably wrong.

His prediction for 2045 is the same as saying "Sometime in the future we'll have a 'millionfold expanded intelligence'".

After watching Lex Fridman's podcast with this man, I take everything he says with a copious amount of salt.

I can't even begin to imagine the depth of conversation they had. Did Lex ask him about the meaning of life? Did they talk about love?

Heh, obviously they did. But RK seemed so absent and lost, and he said such things that it was obvious that he's just old and his mind is very much not what it used to be.

Birthrate has declined dramatically, and even if it hadn’t, we wouldn’t have had enough babies to increase intelligence that much that quickly.

The only way to increase the amount of intelligence on earth is by having children.

I (Msc AI from the 90s) went from extreme pessimist to optimist in the past years but ‘Elon musk says it wil …’ is not very interesting and I am not sure why he added it there. There are far more scientific and informed people who have the same timescales as Elon; why not name one of them.

I think there is a decrease in intelligence after reading this article.