> this is the exact moment when oral arguments are extremely important. They write them down after they're made, not before.

The two parties and their friends have submitted mountains of briefings before oral argument. The arguments made in front of the court are already fully baked. Oral argument is only a signal on where the justices' thinking is taking them at the time. All of this is public, by the way. You can go read everything on your own (something more people in this thread should do).