The original Playstation came out in 1994 and wasn't discontinued until 2009. The PS2 is still being manufactured. PS3 still has a while to go by that metric. If you want to talk time between models, PS1-to-PS2 was 6 years, and PS2-PS3 was 6 years, leaving PS4 to be only slightly behind the curve if it comes out next year.
Consoles have always been subpar in some way or another compared to top-of-the-line PCs at release; that article's claim is silly. My PC at the release of the PS3 had four times the PS3's RAM, and it wasn't even top-of-the-line. One of the biggest benefits of targeting a console is that it's a stable, homogeneous platform.
Tablets and phones aren't the new consoles, they're the new GameBoys. In that way, I agree with you that they could hurt Nintendo the most, mainly by virtue of the DS having been the leader in that market.
However I'm not sure about Wii and PS. They have no Platform to compete with Apple TV and Google TV.
If consoles are going to be limited to epic games then investing in consoles becomes a huge gamble. You have 200 million to spend, do you want to create 1000 games for the iphone or 1 big console game that if it gets below an 80 on metacritic will be considered a "flop".
People don't buy misses on consoles and they don't buy casual games. They buy the big epic games like you described and that is KILLING the industry.
Consoles were, and are, still dominant because the most time that the average person spent with a screen was a TV.
However, the consumer's usage habits are adjusting. The primary screen they are beginning to use is the smartphone and, eventually, it will be the same for the tablet because it is so mobile. This is where gaming is going to have to go.
>Console gaming is about big screens, epic scenery.
That may be what consoles are about but that is not what gaming is about. I would think that it's a dream for any gamer to have access to the same game wherever you are.
>They have already announced IE for xbox.
This will likely be the least used feature of all of MS's announcements. I don't know anyone who enjoyed using a browser sitting 10 feet away from the screen.
the IE for xbox is just part of the movement on Xbox to turn it into the entertainment center of the living room. It's sayign that it's not only for gaming. The fact that Xbox is used more as an entertainment center than gaming is just sign of things to come. It's pretty obvious that the next xbox is going to be marketed as an entertainment center rather than a console.
Phones already support bluetooth, so there is no reason why a couple of dualshocks cannot work with my android phone for team gaming.
I daresay if Sony did not have its "sunken cost" pathology about the playstation consoles, it could rule the gaming world - it already makes Playstation phones and it is one of the world's largest game publishers - it is just too scared to take the final leap. In one shot, it could come up with a phone and game library that could cannibalize its PS2 range.
That may be true in price/performance, but in absolute price terms, those 6-7 year old consoles are still a better deal. The quality of experience you get from a $200 Xbox continues to be much higher than that of a $200 PC.
PS1 (Dec 1994)
PS2 (Nov 2000) = PS1 + 71 months
PS3 (Nov 2006) = PS2 + 72 months
today (Jun 2012) = PS3 + 67 months
Gamecube (Sep 2001)
Wii (Nov 2006) = GC + 62 months
today (Jun 2012) = Wii + 67 months
(Wii U already announced for later this year)
Xbox (Nov 2001)
Xbox360 (Nov 2005) = Xbox + 48 months
today (Jun 2012) = Xbox360 + 79 months
The Wii was profitable from the first unit sold.
The Xbox360, PS3 and Wii have all (AFAIK) gone well beyond the lifespans of their predecessors. It's just taking longer and longer to recoup that investment.
When they came out they were much better (in price-performance terms) than their PC equivalents. As expected, this lasts no longer than 6-12 months.
Rumor has it that the next Playstation will be subpar compared tot he PCs of that time [1] (read the whole thing).
One issue with the PS3/Xbox style gaming is that we're hitting a wall when it comes to improved graphics. Graphics are getting better but not at a rate that people tend to care about. The bigger problem is that those improved graphics come at the cost of content creation (meaning it's more expensive to develop a "level" with more complex models, higher res textures and so forth). Games are getting shorter [2].
At the same time mobile gaming is taking off. Tablets (and possibly phones) are becoming the new consoles. The current iPad has 1GB of RAM and some pretty impressive graphics (given the form factor). And it's only getting better for the foreseeable future.
Mobile gaming I think will hurt Nintendo the most and I see a not insignificant possibility that Nintendo will end up like Sega and just be a software house. I seem to remember reading something about their investors questioning them not bringing their valuable franchises to iOS.
[1]: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2012/04/the-x86-playstation-4-...
[2]: http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2011/04/the-incredible-shrinki...