You are 100% correct. The big blockbuster games will become like movies and the casual games will be like tv shows.
Blockbuster movies flop all the time like "John Carter".
On the other hand we are going to have freemuim multiplayer games (WoW, Diablo3, COD)
If consoles are going to be limited to epic games then investing in consoles becomes a huge gamble. You have 200 million to spend, do you want to create 1000 games for the iphone or 1 big console game that if it gets below an 80 on metacritic will be considered a "flop".
People don't buy misses on consoles and they don't buy casual games. They buy the big epic games like you described and that is KILLING the industry.