How The Economist’s presidential forecast works

Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by QuesnayJr on Sunday June 16, 2024 @05:10PM (#40700134)

Can't Biden bow out any time before the Democratic National Convention in mid-August? I don't expect that he will, but he could.

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Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by krapp on Sunday June 16, 2024 @06:24PM (#40700620)

It would be political suicide for the Democrats not to go with a sitting incumbent President as their candidate, especially against a candidate who was formerly President.

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Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by TMWNN on Sunday June 16, 2024 @06:29PM (#40700656)

Correct.

Further, Biden dropping out would cause another civil war within the Democratic Party that is already dealing with one between the pro-Hamas and pro-Israel sides. Kamala Harris is so unpopular that she absolutely cannot win, but parachuting in Gavin Newsom, who has his own handicaps,[1] would cause Harris's side to cry racism/sexism/etc. And this is all setting aside the difficulty of whoever is Biden's replacement campaigning to become president against someone who has, as you said, already done the job for four years. Four years which, polls consistently show, more voters look back positively upon than not.

[1] The best description I've heard of Newsom is that he looks like the mayor of Gotham City.

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Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by ceejayoz on Sunday June 16, 2024 @07:29PM (#40700965)

> Further, Biden dropping out would cause another civil war within the Democratic Party that is already dealing with one between the pro-Hamas and pro-Israel sides.

Casually asserting the Democrats are split between pro-Israel and pro-Hamas sides reveals a bit of a bias. Pro-Palestinian? Perhaps. Pro-Hamas? Even Rashida Tlaib isn't pro-Hamas.

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Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by TMWNN on Sunday June 16, 2024 @09:20PM (#40701494)

> Casually asserting the Democrats are split between pro-Israel and pro-Hamas sides

You heard me the first time.

Feel free to not agree. Also feel free to watch as NY and NJ vote for Trump in November because Jews see Jew-hunting mobs roaming the NY subway. <https://abc7ny.com/post/protesters-chant-raise-hand-youre-zi...>

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Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by racional on Monday June 17, 2024 @12:27AM (#40702295)

You heard me the first time

And it was just as delusional the first time.

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Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by seanmcdirmid on Sunday June 16, 2024 @07:05PM (#40700838)

Biden is a very moderate Democrat who appeals heavily to moderates, which is the best way to win against a polarizing Trump.

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Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by Mountain_Skies on Sunday June 16, 2024 @06:41PM (#40700706)

Different states have different deadlines for getting on the ballot. The DNC is already going to have to a pre-convention virtual convention where they legally nominate Biden so he can get on the ballot in Ohio. The physical convention will be for rallying the party behind him. If they were to switch to someone else at the convention, at the very least Ohio would retain Biden on the ballot. Ohio does allow for 'faithless' electors, so Biden winning Ohio while the official nominee won other states might not be the worst thing provided the electors could be trusted to switch their vote to whoever the DNC put up in place of Biden.

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Re:How The Economist’s presidential forecast works by QuesnayJr on Monday June 17, 2024 @05:55AM (#40703946)

When is the Ohio deadline?

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