> I think it may be due to some sort of "outcome compression". The life of working a bottom tier-job isn't materially better than a life of not working at all.

The Hikkikomoris in Japan are all sustained by their parents. There's actually a growing concern there about the first generation of Hikkikomoris who are getting into their 50s already and their parents are starting to die, leaving them with no life skills and no source of income.