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Re:Building an AI game studio: what we've learned so far by somenameforme on Wednesday May 22, 2024 @05:24AM (#40439029)
I'd drop the max reviews down by quite a lot. Sales:reviews tend to be around 60:1. So a game with 1000 reviews has sold tens of thousands of copies. We can look at something like the PS2 for some reality checks. It sold 1.5 billion games through 4000 titles. So an average of 350k sales. And of course that's going to follow something like a typical 80/20 ratio, which would leave us with a median sales in the ballpark of 70k! Of course Steam has far more players, but also way more games. The PS2 was a ring-fenced minimal competition domain with an attentive and [relatively] content starved audience!

I decided to look up Tandis first. First off the game has been featured on Ars Technica [1], Rocker Paper Shotgun [2], and lots of other places. So it's definitely not like nobody heard of it. But it just doesn't really seem to drag people in. The reviews, positive as they are, all seem to stop playing after an average of around 3 hours. In fact a huge number of the positive written reviews have less than 1 hour of lifetime gameplay, which is pretty weird for a game that comes at a relatively premium price. And the peak players, a month after release was 7. [3] I'm guessing the players that moved on after such short timeframes probably weren't actively recommending this game outside of those reviews. Would you have actively recommended it, outside just filtering your library and seeing it there?

[1] - https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/04/tandis-review-the-ult...

[2] - https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/geometry-puzzle-game-tandis...

[3] - https://steamcharts.com/app/1297210

Re:Building an AI game studio: what we've learned so far by Hammershaft on Thursday May 23, 2024 @06:07AM (#40452760)
The only source I can find for a 1:60 review to sale ratio is this:

https://gameworldobserver.com/2022/11/15/how-to-count-game-s...

This article explicitly mentions that that ratio only holds for hit games, and mentions that the ratio for smaller games is roughly 1:20, which is still a high ratio compared to figures I've heard in post mortems.

Assuming a game with 1,000 reviews that takes ~3 years for 1 developer to make and support that sells for $15 at a 1:20x ratio. We're looking at 210,000 after steam's cut and before taxes, this developer at top of our review range is making ~70k a year before taxes that are calculated on one year of income. Many small indie developers lose ~35% of their income to taxes alone on game sales and so even under nearly ideal conditions for this 1000 review max constraint we have a developer earning <$50,000.

Note that many of the games I listed are highly rated but have less than 200 reviews

EDIT: I often reccomend Tandis to people, it's a great puzzle game that builds geometric intuition, and it's designed to distill that intuition into a roughly 5 hour play time.

Re:Building an AI game studio: what we've learned so far by somenameforme on Thursday May 23, 2024 @02:51PM (#40458419)
Here's a search for you with about a zillion results. [1] It's definitely way above 20:1. Your link references that number only for games with less than 1000 sales, and provides the data - which is super biased towards games with very near 0 sales, but tons of reviews. It could just be the games were terrible, but another potential issue is shilling. Many developers buy fake positive reviews. To my knowledge nobody has ever been banned for this (though devs have been banned for naively writing fake reviews themselves), but I expect these games end up getting some sort of a deranking or soft shadow ban, because it'd be absurdly easy to detect on Steam's side, and the games that do it seem to often end up buried after what's presumably an extremely low sales:review ratio. Here's an article that also includes some of the games that are hiring shills. [2]

[1] - https://search.brave.com/search?q=steam+reviews+to+sales+rat...

[2] - https://steamcommunity.com/groups/Sentinels_of_the_Store/ann...

Re:Building an AI game studio: what we've learned so far by Hammershaft on Friday May 24, 2024 @12:12AM (#40462733)
Do you specific recent sources that back that up? The source I originally linked as well as this writeup[1] suggests that the review to sale ratio has shrunk over the years and is shrinking for games with lower sales. The sales & owner estimates that steamDB offers also generally pegs the games I listed has having a 10:1 - 30:1 ratio. Here's deadeye deepfake simulacrum as an example:

https://steamdb.info/app/1545990/charts/

Note that many of the highly rated games I shared had sub 300 reviews, so even if you were to have a great 60:1 ratio for a game with 300 reviews priced at $15 you're looking at a $185k gross after steams cut and before taxes for potentially 3+ years of development and support.

I really hope I'm wrong here because I would love a meritocratic indie game scene to keep flourishing, but the greater trend I see is a bifurcation between indie games that synergize with streaming and social media to become breakout hits and excellent games that prove more difficult to market that struggle to tread water.

[1] - https://vginsights.com/insights/article/further-analysis-int...

Re:Building an AI game studio: what we've learned so far by somenameforme on Friday May 24, 2024 @02:31AM (#40463445)
In your link, look at the median data he offers for literally every single thing except date. I think the following matches your overall selection of games pretty well:

---

Indie - 65:1 sales:reviews

$10-$20 - 65:1

>90% (review positive) - 51:1

250-1000 reviews - 89:1

Casual (genre) - ~70:1

---

The only thing that contradicts my 60:1 claim is the date datum, but I would take it with a grain of salt due to a endless quite obvious biases. For instance that article is based on the data 'leaked' up to 2018, but that leak was closed in June 2018. So you not only are missing half the year's data, but the two most critical holidays. There's also lots of different demographics that will have different purchasing/reviewing trends. For instance many people don't buy new releases, or buy them and only play/review them much later, and so on. There's just lot of biases in date alone.

On this site we often get a very unrealistic sampling of economic reality, because a lot of tech stuff is based in locations with extremely high local inflation both in costs and in compensation. For the US as a whole, median personal income is $41k, about $55k exclusively for full time workers. [1] $185k with ongoing passive income is doing wayyyy better than average even in America. And of course with independent development, you're not tied to any location. You could move to anywhere in the other 95% of the world where $185k would spend much closer to something like a million dollars. Places like San Francisco and Seattle are absolutely pricing out small scale entrepreneurship of all forms, but all that means is that we'll instead see things coming disproportionately more frequently from the other 95% of the world.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_...

Re:Building an AI game studio: what we've learned so far by Hammershaft on Wednesday May 29, 2024 @03:51AM (#40509528)
Since our convo I learned a lot of gamedevs use this website to get scraped revenue estimates, so I thought I'd share it here.

https://games-stats.com