If everyone were valued by how much money they could be making, we'd all be billionaires.

Well, neither is anyone else.

If there's money on the table, it's because everyone in the field has failed to figure out how to grab it.

Because the app has been out since 2008, gone through multiple iterations, currently holds a 2-star rating on the App Store, and still hasn't managed to monetize 60% of their impressions.

It's not that is hasn't "managed to monetize," they haven't even TRIED. Very big difference.

> "they haven't even TRIED. Very big difference."

Oh yes, even less confidence-inspiring.

So what you mean to say is, we have here a company whose traffic has been bleeding off their monetized, desktop platform into the unmonetized, mobile platform that has existed for four years, and they still haven't done anything about it?

Are we still talking about FB? I swear this sounds more like RIM.

But who is monetizing mobile banner ads?

Google, InMobi, iAds? It's a $2.6B dollar market that is growing 2x yoy. Don't overlook this market.

It's a 2.6B market for ALL MOBILE ads (of which banner ads are only .86 - http://www.emarketer.com/PressRelease.aspx?R=1008798)

So in 2014 it will be a 2B market - across ALL mobile. How big of a share can FB have - 20-30%? Still looks like a very small number.

Right, so Facebook could potentially grow by 150%, maybe. But their valuation is predicated on them growing by a factor of 10x or more. That's the issue.

Now take the 9 million sites with the Like button and throw in some extra Javascript for a 'Social Adsense' product. Now they have implicit and explicit data to target off of. There's your 10x growth in revenue.