Given what happened during COVID, and how any advanced consumer product contains multiple chips, I suspect you'd see most consumer electronics more complicated than a toaster would become unavailable for months to years, including cars.

It's also highly likely that one of the parties, or even just a rogue Taiwanese nationalist officer, would destroy the fab rather than allow it to be captured.

(Yes, all of this can be moved to different fabs and can be switched to different parts .. but those are time consuming and expensive things to do! Especially when everyone else is trying to do them as well. Expect a "we can't bring up the fab because we can't source PCs" moment.)

Don't forget that if this particular balloon goes up most electronics assembly capacity becomes unavailable as well, because it was in Shenzen.