Time will tell. I'm pretty sure it will though. iPhone is 1 device on 1 network, Android will be dozens of devices across almost all networks. It's Mac vs. Windows all over again.

iPhone is 1 device on 1 network, Windows Mobile is hundreds of devices across all networks.

"Gartner Q3 2008 data shows iPhone passes Windows Mobile": http://blogs.zdnet.com/cell-phones/?p=354

So is Blackberry.

That's current sales, not factoring in the devices that already exist which would give a large edge to WinMO.

Actually even there, Microsoft's claims for Win Mo devices shipped this year is >14 million. If that's true it's nudging out iPhone or at least real damn close.

1 network? It's incredibly easy to buy an unlocked iPhone in certain countries, and I mean... Unlocked by Apple, not cracked.

Whilst I understand that you're referring to North America you should consider that the iPhone is sold in a lot of other countries.

The iPhone is also locked to one carrier in the following countries: UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Japan, Venezuela and many more. Unlocked iPhones are offered in relatively few countries.

http://support.apple.com/kb/HT1937

Which, by total GDP, is like 90% of its market.

Officially unlocked iPhone is so much over-priced ($1000) that nobody bothers to buy it. At least here in Russia.

You're assuming nobody learned their lesson.

Although, that's not necessarily a bad assumption, given Apple's attitude thus far. I'm going to take a wait-and-see approach on this one.

Steve Jobs doesn't learn lessons.

I was in the T-mobile store yesterday and the salesman advised me not to buy a G1 until (list of problems) were resolved with a new version of the software. Right now there's the G1 on T-mobile, Storm on Vodafone and iPhone on O2. iPhone is the clear leader and I can't see that changing anytime soon.

JavaME is dozens of devices across almost all networks, and that never meant success for the platform (if compared to the 1 device 1 network that apple introduced)...