> For jobs where I met the hiring manager (referral, networking, etc.) I had 2 out of 3 applications lead to offers. For resumes submitted online I had 1 out of 50 even respond.

I don't think this means what you think it means. In fact, I only see survivorship bias in your personal anecdote.

Meeting the hiring manager usually takes place after resume filtering. This means that you received offers in processes where you weren't rejected at the very first stage. That's what's expected, isn't it?

Also, it's quite plausible that those hiring processes where you received no feedback happened to be fake job postings where, even though a job ad is posted, there is no job offer at all.

I think the question is how are you meeting the hiring manager?

If you submit a resume to a recruiter (or worse, online job posting) and get to the hiring manager you've absolutely gone through a bunch of formal screening steps. However if, as I believe GP is describing, you're able to connect with them through a side channel (such as a referral) you usually haven't gone through the formal screening so much as you've skipped it entirely. That obviously will dramatically increase your odds of success but it's not the same as getting through the resume scan and HR filter

> I think the question is how are you meeting the hiring manager?

In each and every single time I met a hiring manager, that took place after the early interview rounds where the bulk of applicants were filtered out.

In some cases, the hiring manager was the very last interview.

To me, claiming that meeting the hiring manager is somehow the key step to get hired is like stating that the key step to get hired is to not be rejected.

The entire point was that you meet the hiring manager via personal referral and not by running the gauntlet.

Otherwise, yes, it’s tautological.

> referral, networking, etc

Presumably not through the bottom-up filtering process.

All of my current jobs (I'm in my 40s, been working for money outside the family since my teens), and most of all the jobs I've ever had, were thanks to reaching out to individuals to make a connection, or leveraging an existing connection.

I got my first job through family. From then on, I found all jobs through job ads.

I don't know. Every job since the one out of grad school--admittedly only a few (I tend to stay at jobs for a long time)--involved pinging someone I knew well (former co-worker/client/consultant who worked for us). HR or recruiter was never involved until later in the process so no HR filtering involved.