Opera was doing very well in the first world markets 6-9 years ago, for exactly that reason. They lost the market almost entirely. So, why would the developing world be any different?

AOL, Compuserve, et al hung in for a very long time, even after people begrudgingly ditched their dialup for broadband, solely because they were so comfortable with AOL from that first experience.

Experience suggests it could very well work.

I think the bigger question is whether it would be cost-effective. i.e. to what degree would that be effective in capturing social network market share in those regions, is it the most cost-effective way to capture that share, would it be enough to simply pay Opera to 'partner' with Facebook, etc.

Opera is popular in the developing world for an entirely different reason - the Turbo/mini compression - it may lose that market if other browsers also do compression.

For example - here in Cambodia I subscribe to a 2GB 3,5G package for just $5 a month. The reception and speed is great in urban areas.

However, if you're just talking about extremely poor countries without any 3G service, then you're absolutely correct. There's not too many of them left though, just some countries in Africa and the Middle East.

Mobile data is getting cheap incredibly fast and betting a company on providing data compression is stupid. It has worked out well for Opera so far (kudos to them, I'm Norwegian), but continuing to base their income on it is a losing battle. They have to pivot in order to still be relevant and being bought by Facebook is, in my opinion, a good way of doing it.

In the software game, there is no point planning 10 years ahead. 10 years ago, software was very different from now. But 5 years from now, there will still be feature phones and africa/se asia will continue to be growing.

Facebook would have purchased the basic platforms it needs for future software, and would be in a good position for whatever comes next.

Personally I'm using only a dumb phone, I think it's going to be at least my daily phone forever.

Longer battery life. More durable screen. Mature technology. Cheaper. Lighter and smaller. Faster to call people. You can replace keys if they go broke. Doesn't look nasty if you have greasy fingers. And the bottom line: I don't need anything but sms and calling.

I'm sorry, but in a few years you won't be able to buy a feature phone. Smartphones will get better battery life, screens etc as costs come down (and the third world gets richer) and technology marches on.

I remember hearing that 12 years ago.

It won't.