Well, the sky at that level is very roughly 10¹⁷m² large and there are roughly 10⁴ satellites, so that's simple: The odds of hitting one is 1 to 10¹³ if the average satellite is 1m² as seen from below. Many are bigger but I understand that there's a large number of microsatellites now. Say 10¹² if you think the average is bigger.