> and their services revenue is in jeopardy with the new EU changes to the App Store

the services revenue is at an all time high and keeps climbing:

https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/14629/apple-services-reve...

re. app store, the EU market represents just 7% of their worldwide app store revenues, most probably due to the fact the EU market is 65% android:

https://techcrunch.com/2024/02/01/apple-says-eu-represents-7...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/639928/market-share-mobi....

I was considering less how their revenue is now and more how it will be when the EU regulations hit and they lose the guaranteed 30/15% cut on all iOS apps

I know the US govt is hitting them with a similar anti-trust lawsuit, so it might happen over there too

If Apple lose their walled garden, and the 30/15% cut with it, both in EU and US, I think that could be a massive problem for them

Whether or not that will actually happen, or if Apple will find a way to compensate for the lost revenue, I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised if it was causing big discussions inside the company though, and I wouldn't be surprised if people become more bearish on Apple until they show they've found a solution

> Apple lose their walled garden, and the 30/15% cut with it

This could be fantasy talking. How does the walled garden around Steam affect their 30% cut? Oh, there is no wall, and it's... 30%.

So wait, if non-walled-garden stores cost 30% in an open market -- are we sure this is going to work out getting to use the world's most valuable app store shelf space for free?

It doesn't work that way at Walmart...

A better comparison is the (derelict) Mac App Store. Apple still continues to charge their 30%, and their most professional developers and customers continue to avoid their store. Adobe doesn't sell full-fat Photoshop through Apple's storefront, Avid doesn't bother with it for Pro Tools, Ableton, Bitwig, Sony, U-HE, Sonar, Spectrasonics, and even Panic don't fully commit to Apple's offerings. Nevermind the fact that ubiquitous components of modern professional software development (git, bash, grep, make, the lot) isn't even allowed to be distributed under their own terms on the App Store. If nothing changes, Apple will become Lord of the Flies.

If Apple wants to be Steam, let them play Steam's game and see how far their philosophy takes them.

if only they put macOS on the iPhone, this would all be avoided

> This could be fantasy talking. How does the walled garden around Steam affect their 30% cut? Oh, there is no wall, and it's... 30%.

Steam isn't both the OS manufacturer and the sole vendor of games on PC, unlike Apple and iOS

I can release a game for PC or macOS and never pay Steam or Apple a dime, can't say the same for iOS