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Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by gravescale on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:26PM (#39888665)
I still have never understood the valuations. Sure, they'd make sense if Tesla ended up being the only game in town, forever. But even though they undoubtedly have been streets ahead in many places for a long time and Western manufacturers have been caught on the back foot, the Asian players are snapping at their heels, and (some of) the Western brands are slowly waking up. And even if they weren't, I don't see how Tesla would have been able to dig a moat wide enough to last so long that a trillion dollar valuation could be realised before they become just another EV brand in the pack.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by bobthepanda on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:34PM (#39888725)
With the recent NACS deals they have basically also become the charging network of choice in North America, which is certainly worth something.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by peutetre on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:38PM (#39888776)
With North America slowing working toward a common EV plug and CCS winning the charging standard war, North American EV charging will become more like Europe. Charge any brand of EV on any brand of charging network, just as nature intended. No more vendor lock in.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by ta1243 on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:45PM (#39888850)
The lockin is at the charger level. Fill up with petrol? Drive up, tap your card, fill up. At some places you fill up then go into the shop and tap your card.

Electric? Drive up, work out which of the dozen of apps there are, try to download it, hold your phone in the other hand to try to get a signal, finally download it, then register, sell your personal data, then finally you can try to work out how to charge your car.

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by peutetre on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:53PM (#39888927)
More sensible infrastructure regulation in Europe. They're mandating contactless payments on charger. No app required: https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/latest-fleet-news/electric-...

Even on Tesla's newer dispensers: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/yflZN0dLT8s

It's true that North America still has a long way to go on EV infrastructure, but it will get there eventually.

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by ta1243 on Sunday March 31, 2024 @07:14PM (#39889100)
Damn government, making things better for everyday people. How can honest corporations abuse their captive audiences when the government keeps restricting their abilities?
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by xref on Monday April 01, 2024 @02:26PM (#39897394)
We need less/more/same regulation, whichever one satisfies my desires at any given moment!
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by bobthepanda on Sunday March 31, 2024 @07:03PM (#39889018)
Who else right now manufactures NACS chargers?
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by peutetre on Sunday March 31, 2024 @07:06PM (#39889044)
All CCS charger manufacturers. NACS is CCS with a different plug on the end. It's CCS type 3.

It's a very simple change for all manufacturers.

Here are interviews with various charger makers:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbPa6nO6GyM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfyO-o85U-8

Alpitronic and Kempower make the best chargers.

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by seanmcdirmid on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:43PM (#39888829)
NACS is winning, not CCS.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by peutetre on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:45PM (#39888840)
NACS is CCS. It's CCS type 3. It's why older Teslas can't charge on NACS chargers without a retrofit. They can't talk CCS without upgrades.

Don't get confused by the branding.

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by seanmcdirmid on Sunday March 31, 2024 @07:11PM (#39889077)
They are CCS with a proprietary connector (well, soon to be SAE J3400), so it still means we (CCS1 cars) can’t use their chargers without an adapter, even if they let us.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by peutetre on Sunday March 31, 2024 @07:21PM (#39889172)
It won't be proprietary. It is SAE J3400. It is CCS. That's why other manufacturers are willing to support it.

It's true that North America should have standardized a plug and charging standard a long time ago so drivers aren't in a situation where they have to waste money on adapters just to charge their car.

Europe has much better EV infrastructure today in part because manufacturers have been able to build to a common standard and have it work across all brands. That standardization has driven investment, development, and deployment.

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by seanmcdirmid on Sunday March 31, 2024 @08:14PM (#39889521)
It didn’t help that Tesla seemed to be much better at setting up charging infrastructure than VW. Electrify America is kind of a joke now, with busted chargers being the norm rather than the exception.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by yyyyz on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:49PM (#39888904)
Because once the valuations are proven incorrect they just sell the company on to the next fool trying to justify the valuation. Look at Twitter, complete failure of the company, totally worthless but the legal system and media prop it up, even though it’s only ever lost money.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by VirusNewbie on Sunday March 31, 2024 @07:08PM (#39889057)
I think the argument for it goes as folllows:

Tesla has more 'self supervised' driving data than any other car brand, so if data is key to making self driving work, they win. You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked.

Now before I get flamed, I don't own Tesla stock, and no I don't think self driving is just around the corner. I'm perfectly happy with good autopilot though and I think the model 3 is a great mid level car. But yes I think Tesla stock was quite over valued.

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by rsynnott on Monday April 01, 2024 @06:11AM (#39892472)
> You could also see how this is a winner take all monopoly once self driving gets cracked.

… _Why_, though? Even if you buy the idea that Tesla is going to come out with self-driving cars Any Day Now(TM), that really seems like the underpants gnome part of the narrative. It’s most unclear why it would be a winner takes all thing.

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by Ekaros on Monday April 01, 2024 @09:46AM (#39894131)
It is only winner takes all if Tesla keeps being only one with self-driving... Which to me looking into history is insane. Is there any technology where there is only single provider?

It is big enough market that eventually there will be multiple-players and then it will be race to bottom. Marginal profits. Self-driving taxis will be dumped like Uber and Lyft did against other players. And then it will be low margin business.

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by gravescale on Monday April 01, 2024 @10:01AM (#39894280)
Right? And even if they did score a virtual monopoly in the US through assiduous lobbying, they can't keep a global lid on development forever. Especially that if they do crack it, they prove that it both can be done and it's "just" the software. Even without the Asian manufacturers, the German ones wouldn't just roll over and die either.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by VirusNewbie on Monday April 01, 2024 @11:22AM (#39895092)
It’s winner take all because if the scaling hypothesis applies to self driving, they have way more telemetry to do self supervised training on, which initiates a feedback loop: more people buy their cars which gives them even more training data, making their self driving system even further ahead of the competition.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by gravescale on Monday April 01, 2024 @12:16PM (#39895796)
Even if that were the case, that can't go on forever. Even if it's literally just a matter of who has enough data, at some point a competitor, maybe with state-level support, will have "enough" data to come after you with their own self driving option. Perhaps now Tesla is at 90% (just say, it's just an example) and Mercedes (again say) is at 10%. One day Tesla may be 100% and Mercedes is at 30%, and the German government, for one, will be shoveling cash into the furnace the whole time if the German auto industry is in existential danger. The gap can only close.

Meanwhile once you reach full self driving, you're stuck at diminishing returns. Doubling your data won't double that: at best you could make a very marginal improvement to safety stats or range economy. Maybe with a lot of lobbying you could swing a slightly higher Tesla-only speed limit, but double self driving isn't a thing. Everything else in the car is commodity stuff like sound systems and seat heaters then anyone with a car factory and a team of designers and a copy of the Bosch Automotive Handbook can do if they want to. Probably you could get some network effects from the "Rent your Tesla out" app, but again, that's an option for anyone with a team of designers once the self-driving part is done and they'll be in the disruption phase and aggressively undercutting as best they can.

This also assumes that in 2029 you can't just use 80% (again... just a random number) synthetic training data and leapfrog nearly all of those hard-won physical miles. The costs of doing that will plummet too, so the training cost moat will only shrink as well.

Meanwhile Tesla will be ossifying as gigantic trillion dollar behemoths tend to do and accruing costs like pensions, and management entrenching will be in its third decade and so on.

Is Tesla worth a lot? Undoubtedly. Is it that much? Questionable. But then the market disagrees, so what do I know (but also the market was off by 30% by it's own estimation so how much does it really know?)

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by VirusNewbie on Wednesday April 03, 2024 @01:12PM (#39920124)
I'm not sure I agree. In our (very very) hypothetical scenario, it seems that self driving would play out similar to how software incumbents in general are very hard to displace.

You could use the same argument for search, operating systems, or public cloud as well? "Why couldn't a more nimble or well funded company come in and commoditize {software industry}"

I'm not sure, but we only have two major app stores, we only have three big public clouds, we only have three companies making major operating systems for consumer devices, two search engines, I could go on.

I think that marginal benefit that comes from first mover and scale really makes it hard to catch up in the world of software. Big tech is not afraid to use rapidly rising stock to retain talent, which makes it very hard for startups to acquire comparable talent unless VCs are willing to throw gobs of money at companies, that then go to exorbitant comp. (and you see this in the bull market run of 2015-2022).

Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by dragonwriter on Monday April 01, 2024 @12:17PM (#39895803)
Even if that didn't ignore the scaling behavior of auto manufacturing, which it very badly does, that would only be a reason it might be winner-take-all, because it has a giant load-bearing “if”.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by VirusNewbie on Monday April 01, 2024 @12:49PM (#39896160)
right, above I mentioned that it's too big of an if for me to invest. Hence why I think Tesla is a decent car that people should consider, but I'm not a shareholder.
Re:Tesla stock drops 29% in first quarter as global dominanc... by FireBeyond on Sunday March 31, 2024 @06:31PM (#39888694)
Tesla is a Schrodinger, depending on the narrative needed:

They're David going against the Goliath of "the dinosaurs", "legacy auto".

And then their fans like to remind people of their (IMHO laughable) Goliath market cap. You know, the market cap that says Tesla is worth more than: Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault, Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi. COMBINED. But wait, there's more, also worth more than all of these AND several Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng.