I talked to a bunch of dudes who had various surgeries to open up their airways. It seems the outcome of the surgeries is kind of hit and miss. Some people had multiple surgeries and still no success.

This is a really important comment. Whether for apnea or other sinus related issues, I've met far more people for whom the surgery did nothing than people I've talked to who had good outcomes.

I have heard horror stories about the surgery. Who knows, but I’m skeptical because surgery presumes the precise cause is known. The number of variables for sleep apnea is large to have certainty.

"The number of variables for sleep apnea is large to have certainty."

Clearly they have to know which part of your airway is restricted. Most of the variables for sleep apnea are not related to the surgey, just factors that make it more likely to experience that restricted airway (drinking, weight, etc).

I have sleep apnea and I use a CPAP. During the diagnosis, there were tests but nothing that would/could finger a physical culprit that could be fixed via surgery.

My question is, what tools are there to narrow, to a certainty, what would need to be done via surgery? In all my research I have found none. Maybe I missed them. If I did not, then it amounts to a guess by a surgeon. And that's what worries me and has fed a lot of the horror stories I've read about.

There is also the mouth guard for apena.

https://www.sleepapnea.org/treatment/sleep-apnea-mouth-guard...