I think the main disconnect is the state believes "incident X" will happen Y% of the time, and the insurance companies believe it will be Y+X%, and they're not willing (or can't find a reinsurance backer) to roll it.

The state, of course, can be the reinsurance issuer of last resort if they really believe their numbers are correct. Or do something like the California Earthquake Authority which everyone knows is vastly underfunded, but at least there's the hint of a promise that when the Big One™ comes, they'll get emergency funding: https://www.earthquakeauthority.com