He will get out much sooner.

So if he's sentenced to 40 years in federal court ... (this is federal court, right? I forgot)

Fed doesn't do parole. Best you can get typically is time for good behavior for like 15% reduction in length.

But there's a good chance he doesn't get sentenced to 40 years, that's just what the prosecutor asks for. We dunno yet.

The minimum for federal sentences is that you have to serve 2/3.

It’s 85%

Maybe the next president will pardon him for some bitcoin.

You're right, my mistake.

A federal inmate can theoretically get presidential clemency.

Obama granted almost 2000 clemencies. Biden, so far, about a dozen + 6500 for simple possession of MJ. Trump was in between with something over 200.

I guess that's a relevant point. He might be able to buy a pardon or clemency.

Trump had a particular way of picking

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/22/trump-clemency-recipient-phi...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/19/ponzi-schemer-granted-clemen...

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/06/us/politics/trump-pardon-...

https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/trump-pa...

frauds, cons, ponzi schemes

You really think he will do the whole sentance? I will be shocked if he sees more than 5.

Do you think he'll get a sentence that short, or that one of the next two presidencies will pardon him?

Federal prison sentences don't offer a lot of opportunities for early release--you get to shave of 54 days per year of served time, or in other words, he might be able to get out 7 years early were he sentenced for 50 years.

The only way he'll serve less than 5 years is if Trump is elected president and decides to pardon him because no one should go to prison merely for defrauding people out of billions of dollars.