From what I remember from school, the extremely rough rule of thumb, specifically for thermal effects on the silicon itself, is that +10C will halve the lifespan of the chip. When you try to push a chip with an OC, the power/perf gets highly nonlinear, so you end up making tradeoffs here. Chip vendors like Intel and AMD do a lot of testing and validation to pick power curves that will meet the warranty specs of the chip, but they do have some wiggle room.

There’s a whole bunch of other failure modes that aren’t captured by the 10C rule. It’s more for estimating chip failure due to things like electromigration. You can observe this if you run a desktop CPU overclocked for many years. I had a 2600k that I had to keep bumping the OC down on, and jt eventually bit the dust after a decade.