Yeah, good question. A few years ago the answer may have been that we thought we could influence more money than we could make.

Fwiw, when I've tried it, it has tended to suck in a whole lot of my time.

For me, other projects seem more meaningful. E.g., right now I'm setting up this: https://alert-team.org, another member is behind https://theaidigest.org/progress-and-dangers, a third works at https://forecastingresearch.org/, etc. Maybe we're an idealistic bunch, but also maybe we're making a bad judgment call, and still yet it's possible we couldn't cut it.

> Maybe we're an idealistic bunch

I mean, it makes me quite happy that y'all apparently use your skills for wholesome, humanitarian things instead of just focusing on making $$$.

Aren't you just itching to see if you can do it against the hottest competition on the planet? Ie, and I mean this with respect - financial markets are the major leagues of prediction - it feels a little bit like you are playing in the minor leagues. And it's not just a chest beating exercise - you guys appear genuine and to want to push forward the science/art of prediction. But if you can't beat the current best, you aren't state of the art, let alone able to push things forward. You might be pushing things backwards.

fwiw, it appears you'd have a decent chance. You guys seem to have an extreme level of objectivity and rationality. There is a lot of domain knowledge required to bet on say, healthcare stocks or whatever, but maybe too much domain knowledge harms rather than hurts.

this

Naively, if any of the predictions could be made +EV accounting for time preference, the boffins' predictions should have been mirrored into the market to someone's profit.

I remain unconvinced that they're not merely very lucky, the same way that some hedge fund operators or day traders are lucky.

Presumably you don’t publish your strats there.

I'm not sure it's quite the same thing though. It's not a strat, it's a judgement call. And, they can put a bet on at time t and then publish at time t + 1 min. This is done by hedge funds, they do publish/pitch their ideas sometimes.