I guess the outcome will be that outside some completely irrelevant oddballs there will just be one or two entities like Epic serving the intersection of non-casual gamers and people who consider the iPhone a gaming platform and they won't pull much market away from Apple, but serve as a limiter to how much Apple can abuse their platform rule. It will look like a failure, but only because some of the limiting effect on platform abuse will also bleed into makets not directly affected by EU rules.
And they'll be fairly fined for it
Can't have this being used by those who might not net Apple any money, they're locked out obviously. Fair and reasonable. /s
You get 1m free Apple App Store installs/year.
App marketplaces pay 0.50€ per install-year from zero.
App developers (except web distribution, perhaps) get 1M free app installs per year, regardless of marketplace.
> One million free first annual installs. Membership in the Apple Developer Program includes one million first annual installs per year for free for apps distributed from the App Store and/or alternative marketplaces.
> Developers of alternative app marketplaces will pay the Core Technology Fee for every first annual install of their app marketplace, including installs that occur before one million.
> Apps offered through Web Distribution must meet Notarization requirements to protect platform integrity, like all iOS apps, and can only be installed from a website domain that the developer has registered in App Store Connect.
Further, the conditions for eligibility seem to block access to new startups and indie developers.
> To be eligible for Web Distribution, you must: (...) Be a member of good standing in the Apple Developer Program for two continuous years or more, and have an app that had more than one million first annual installs on iOS in the EU in the prior calendar year.