Those of us who have no problem containing our video setup inside our head, who have a Harmony remote, who have a mental picture of what goes where -- we're not really going to care that much. I think we'll appreciate a fully integrated TV experience, but I don't think we're the people who will get excited about it.
But let's put it this way, if you're staying at someone's house (i.e. babysitting or housesitting), the one thing you must hold a debriefing session on is how the TV, boxes and remote(s) work. That's kind of messed up. That's where the big advantage is for an Apple TV set.
The set-top-box remote, OTOH, could be no more complex than an Apple remote - menu/back, play/select/pause, directions.
One day I'll try tearing out every button off my TV remote and leave just the power and input buttons. Should be an interesting experiment.
But do they?
Tivos, VCRs, DVD players -- very few get replaced with an 'upgrade' by regular people. [1]
And gaming consoles, the case to study for set-top boxes that people do upgrade, get replaced only every 5+ years. And they have massively lower market penetration.
[1] Notwithstanding early adopters replacing limited early-run devices with later ones, as with early dvd players getting replaced by those that did dual-layer without a pause.
A TV set-top-box is much cheaper to build than a gaming console (or, at least, should be) and the commitment will probably be with the subscribed content - and people won't upgrade them unless the new version offsets its price with enticing features. TV makers already noticed that and the push to digital is a form of making standards flexible enough to accommodate things like 2160p and 3D, shortening product life to levels analog TV sets and long-lived standards wouldn't be able to achieve.
Given that TV's all have some degree of computerization, these days, I want mine to be open source, for reasons precisely like this.
- WirelessHD with CoverFlow input selection (no rat's nest of wires, physical input slots or keep-pressing-the-button input select)
- an integrated AirPort (no cable-company modem/router)
- Fully modular, wireless, THX sound that always works (even with Bluetooth headphones)
- Built-in Blu-Ray and program guide that don't suck
- Siri, of course
- Always-on AirPlay (regardless of input or power being off)
- TV programming packages and customer service provided by Apple
And most importantly:
- One remote, or an iPod touch, or an iPhone, or an iPad, and oh yes, the iPad can watch ESPN while your TV is tuned to Dancing With The Stars.