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Re:Musk sues Altman seeking a return to open source and non-... by jprete on Friday March 01, 2024 @12:54PM (#39564529)
There's plenty of reliable evidence. It's just not conclusive evidence. But a lot of people including AI researchers now think we are looking at AGI in a relatively short time with fairly high odds. AGI by the OpenAI economic-viability definition might not be far off at all; companies are trying very very hard to get humanoid robots going and that's the absolute most obvious way to make a lot of humans obsolete.
Re:Musk sues Altman seeking a return to open source and non-... by nradov on Friday March 01, 2024 @01:07PM (#39564707)
None of that constitutes reliable evidence. Some of the comments you see from "AI researchers" are more like proclamations of religious faith than real scientific analysis.

β€œHe which testifieth these things saith, Surely I come quickly. Amen. Even so, come, Lord Jesus.”

Show me a robot that can snake out a plugged toilet. The people who believe that most jobs can be automated are ivory-tower academics and programmers who have never done any real work in their lives.

Re:Musk sues Altman seeking a return to open source and non-... by reducesuffering on Friday March 01, 2024 @03:12PM (#39566253)
> Show me a robot that can snake out a plugged toilet.

Astounding that you would make such strong claims while only able to focus on the rapidly changing present and such a small picture detail. Try approaching the AGI claim from a big picture perspective, I assure you, snaking a drain is the most trivial of implementation details for what we're facing.

Re:Musk sues Altman seeking a return to open source and non-... by permo-w on Friday March 01, 2024 @01:45PM (#39565228)
yes it's in fact fantastic that mentally-stimulating jobs that provide social mobility are disappearing, and slavery-lite, mentally-gruelling service industry jobs are the future. people who haven't had to clean a strangers' shit out of a toilet should be ashamed of themselves and put to work at once.

honestly I'm not sure I've seen the bar set higher for "what's a threat?" than for AGI on Hacker News. the old adage of not being able to convince a man of something that is directly in opposition to him receiving his paycheck clearly remains true. gpt-4 should scare you enough, even if it's 1000 years from being AGI.