If it escalates, it will escalate bigly. If Russia attacks a NATO country, article 5 will / should kick in and the combined military force of 31 countries (with or without the US) will combine their strengths.
But nobody wants this to escalate further, because nukes. Nothing will matter anymore if Russia decides to use them. It doesn't matter if they lose hundreds of thousands of people, material, and are completely humiliated, as long as they have nukes, "we" cannot strike back.
At this point, wishful thinking that the Ukraine conflict seizes up again, keeps the Russian army occupied, and things cool off slowly. Or that the Russian leadership is replaced, but there's no guarantees it would be replaced by someone who would stop the war.
The Budapest memorandum is not a defense pact. The only obligation the US has is to e escalate to the UN security council if Ukraine gets nuked.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170312052208/http://www.cfr.or...
The promise[1] was to not invade it, it was not to provide defence.
France and the UK will not use nukes when Poland is invaded.
Russia will not use nukes when invading Poland.
Russia might not even use nukes when losing Kaliningrad (but I'm not so sure there, if Ukraine gets back Crimea we will see).
If you don't, Russia will politely ask to have its territory back and would get that eventually.
Bottom line, stop thinking about the land as if it was not full of people settled there.
And the argument was about nukes, in the event NATO invades Kaliningrad because of missle sites, not if it should or would.
Funnily the staunchest supporters of Putin in Germany (Nazis) would also be the only ones who would like to have Königsberg back.
https://bellenews.com/2013/12/16/world/europe-news/russia-de...
Or the one where Russia guaranteed Ukraines sovereignty if they would give up nuclear weapons? (Russia playing the long con, got what it wanted, Ukraine free of nuclear weapons, ready to be invaded).
That deal was just about nuclear proliferation. It was well reasoned at the time and had no special conditions.
That being said - the idea that Ukrainians are a "fake nation" has been a prominent talking point in Russia my entire life.
I didn't say "grant" I did write "guarantee".
Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum [0] ("guarantee Ukraines sovereignty") so Ukraine would sign the Lisbon Protocol [1] ("give up nuclear weapons").
Ukraine gives up nuclear weapons, Russia guarantees Ukraines sovereignty. Simple:
"The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises three substantially identical political agreements [..] to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of [..] Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [..] Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders" [0]
What about the next war? Have you listened to Putin? Ukraine is an artificial nation according to him and Russia has the right to reabsorb "Little Russia". How do you compromise with that view?
Russia has a long tradition of treating treaties as scraps of paper, and they have a recent history in this regard with Ukraine.
Their long-term aim is to absorb Ukraine and exploit its industrial and agricultural potential for further imperial expansion. The next will be the Baltic countries and after them Central Europe.
Whatever peace will be signed now will last precisely as long as it takes Russia to rebuild their offensive capabilities for the next round of war.
All the dead are fault of Putin and his imperial ambitions. Our only choice is whether to submit and become serfs in a neo-Russian empire, or fight back and help Ukrainians fight back.
Bush, Obama / Hillary, and Biden are no different than Putin, if not far worse. They deserve no more trust from Americans than a serial killer who took out members of your family for fun. They are reckless abusers, for greed and continued power.
(With one huge caveat, both the Middle Easterners and the South Americans are perfectly capable of starting various shit themselves. Don't deprive them of agency by painting them as blind and obedient puppets of Washington. Especially the Middle East is a very ancient civilization with a tradition of backstabbing and betrayal going deep into the Antiquity. They don't have to learn that from some Westerners.)
But in the context of European security, the main problem of the last decades was either the USSR or Russia, not the US. It was Soviet tanks that rolled through Czechoslovak cities in 1968 to crush our attempt at political independence, not American ones.
Context matters, and for former Soviet Bloc nations, Americans are an ally against potential reestablishment of Russian rule.
In 2023, a trusted, world-renowned expert — Bill Gates — stated that Ukraine is one of the single most corrupt nations in the world, and that he feels very sorry for the people there. [1] That says a lot, doesn't it?
Zelenskyy shuts down churches, imprisons political protestors and American journalists, and launders money back to the U.S. war machine after we "fund" them every month or less — to the order of $113 million per day now. How could anyone not see clearly what's happening there? It seems that people are so blinded by their hatred for Russia, that what the people are suffering in Ukraine on Ukraine's own accord isn't enough of a problem, despite how gaping it is.
Ukraine is corrupt. So what? Ukrainian corruption is a threat to no one. Not a single nation from Finland to Bulgaria considers itself vulnerable to Ukrainian military aggression, because they aren't an imperial nation and don't seek to dominate others. They were perfectly fine within their 1991 borders and never attempted to annex any extra territory by any means.
It is Russia's problem, in the words of great Václav Havel, that it does not know exactly where it ends.
All the hatred for Russia stems from their former heavy-handed rule of other nations. If they sincerely tried to make amends, it would slowly go away. They are now trying to rebuild their former imperial system. OF COURSE that nations which escaped their tyranny once are going to hate them.
It is freaking simple: we, as in Estonians, Latvians, Poles, Czechs, Rumanians, Ukrainians, Georgians etc. DON'T WANT TO BE THREATENED OR ATTACKED BY RUSSIA. That's it. We have had enough experience with Russian rule. It is primitive and brutal at the same time. Never again.
Putin also stated that Russia is the largest land mass in the world assigned to a nation, and that there's absolutely no reason that it should grow. However, when its borders are threatened, it will act accordingly, like any nation would. Ukraine has a history with manufactured agitation and baiting [1][2]. And before you judge the sources, there is always more than 1 side to a story.
Putin wants to reclaim only a small fraction of Ukraine where the people in those regions have openly stated wanting that very thing to happen, due to Ukraine's corruption and oppressive policies.
Kiev is practically spotless when you compare it to Gaza, so in the grander scheme, Russia isn't doing anything nearly as horrible as Israel or Hamas combined. This really puts things into perspective by comparing these conflicts and measuring not only their outcomes, but the timeframes in which these events have occurred. Putin's actions have been overblown tremendously, and has publicly stated he's open to peace talks, but the U.S. (and by extension NATO) will not allow Ukraine to do this. They want their war.
1. https://x.com/randyhillier/status/1755286103945277574?s=20
Putin said in early 2022 that he has no interest in invading Ukraine. Invasion happened weeks later.
The U.S. was heavily active in 2014 onward helping Ukraine prepare for this. Specifically in 2016, as shown in this video [1].
1. https://x.com/PatriotPraetori/status/1755781643233628622?s=2...
US and Europe were not (and sadly, are not) doing nowhere nearly enough in providing defensive weapons to Ukraine, if they had, this invasion would have been stopped long ago.
Poke the hornet's nest? Yes, I'm saying that. This was a collusion between the U.S., Ukraine, and other globalist EU nations to make Russia look bad using their mass media machine to spread lies about a senseless war, use it as cover to launder money around, and punish / attack a nation (Russia) that isn't submitting to their globalist agenda -- just like they did to Iraq, and several others who wouldn't comply, on the basis of not accepting the U.S. petrodollar.
Why is Russia forming BRICS with nearly half the world? To escape from the clutches of the U.S. empire strangling them.
That's a pretty naive, cartoon-like narrative of events, you know.
"Isn't submitting to their globalist agenda" - again, what does that mean? As you yourself point out, nobody was planning to invade them. Russia is the largest country in the world by land mass with abundant natural resources - oil, gas, diamonds and other riches. But instead of focusing on improving lives for ordinarily russians, they want to expand that "russian world" which only brings death and destruction.
See this [1] for a perfect example of the imperial mindset - Putin saying that "Russia’s borders do not end anywhere"
[1] https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1746784252312891463?lan...
While IDF in Gaza was fighting building to building with most of the population evacuated. The destruction of Gaza you see is following controlled demolition because of the tunnels below (basically every house).
The same ease as now in Avdiivka? It took five months of constant bloodshed for Russians to gain the upper hand.
"Putin wants to reclaim only a small fraction of Ukraine where the people in those regions have openly stated wanting that very thing to happen, due to Ukraine's corruption and oppressive policies."
I don't even know what to reply to this. Hitler also ran fake referenda. BTW That small fraction of Ukraine is something like a sixth of its total territory, plus multiple important cities and most of the coastline.
I never really understood why people believed Hitler when he declared in 1938 that Czechoslovak Sudetenland was his last territorial demand, but hey, here we go again.
"Kiev is practically spotless when you compare it to Gaza"
And? There was never ground fighting in Kiev proper, given that the Russians didn't manage to enter the city, and both Ukraine and Russia have enough of AA to keep each other's air assets at bay.
Look at Bakhmut or Avdiivka, places of actual fighting and former homes of tens of thousands of people. They actually do look a lot worse than Gaza. How did you miss those cities when looking for context and perspective?
Exactly. Last time Russia and Germany signed a deal to cut Eastern Europe in half, then each invaded countries on their side of the line (and cut Poland in half). Sadly this is not how it is teached in Russia. Which is one of the reasons for what is happening now.
Russias goals haven't changed. Luckily Germany (currently) wants nothing of it.
As a "Middle Easterner" (a colonialist term by the way), I didn't realize that the "Middle East" was one conglomerate culture. Thank you for teaching me about my history /s
We also speak of Western civilization, even though it doesn't equal to one conglomerate culture either.
As for 'colonialist' term ... sigh, do I care how people call Europe on Arabic or Turkish forums? Every cultural region has some lingo that reflects its history.
'Europe' itself is a Phoenician word that means "country of sunset". From their perspective, it was. Hereby I am forgiving old Phoenician colonialists (and they indeed colonized much of the Mediterranean) for naming some continent according to their local perspective. That is what people tend to do.
Pick "Military" only in the chart, add up the numbers of, Germany, UK, Denmark, Norway, and Netherlands, and you'll get a higher number than the US.
This is not intended to be an insult, but be better. There are plenty of forums to act like this on, and HN isn't one of them.
Does that diminish my point?
I guess that means the US cannot be trusted.
That "bigger" is bought, and has been every year. We could spend that money on other things: social welfare, health care, etc.
So, excusing Europe's inability to deliver mass military aid, when they've willingly underinvested in their defense industry and equipment for decades, rings a bit hollow.
We police the world because being the world police is fabulously profitable. You want to maintain the largest economy in the world? Well then you want to keep up the status quo of "you can do business between most countries, and can ship anything across the world for pennies per pound with near zero risk".
Arguably, the biggest beneficiary of the US Navy's protection of commercial shipping has been China.
Especially considering China doesn't pay for any of that protection.
Yet again it's the US explicitly spending money to keep someone dependent, similar to Russia's selling cheap gas to put economic pressure on the west.
China and the US really really really don't want to go to war, because even an unsteady "peace" between us is so goddamn profitable. But the US wants everyone to be able to sail by the Chinese coast without harassment, and China wants to own the entire sea north of Australia so.....
USA is not the only crucial partner for Ukraine in this war, they are the crucial partner in a specific area. That's why it's unfair to undersell the crucial partners in other important areas. Everyone is doing their thing to support in the areas they can give support. But not everyone can give the same support, and not everyone should support in areas already covered by others.
> The US has provided more funding to Ukraine than the world combined by a large margin, and the lesson you take away is that the US is somehow at fault.
No, it has not provided more funding to Ukraine than the world combined, the EU by itself has provided more military aid than the US already.
You're just wrong. It's not hard to admit that, trying to save face just made it worse...
This is not true for some time now.
First google result (but there are more charts, numbers and sources): https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-s...
Yet whoever provided more aid is irrelevant, since it's not enough anyway. We, as a world, are observing (and doing nothing, for the most part) fourth reich coming into action.