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Re:Why it's so hard to build new commercial aircraft by brigade on Monday February 12, 2024 @07:01AM (#39343897)
Those runways still serve a ton of 737/A320 flights that have plenty of room to be upgauged to widebodies, and most of those runways could increase capacity further still if FAA/ICAO decide newer tech can safely reduce IFR separation.

Even with runway congestion, a big problem with an A380 successor is that any new commercial jet needs the fuel economy of two engines to have a chance of selling enough to be worth developing. Which in turn means that an A380-sized twin engine plane needs engines with ~50% more thrust than the current world record from a GE9X, which is already approaching material limits...

A new 747-like plane with a partial double deck might eventually make business sense to develop within our lifetimes... But I think a blended wing (lol) is more likely than ever seeing another full double decker like the A380.

Re:Why it's so hard to build new commercial aircraft by cm2187 on Monday February 12, 2024 @07:55AM (#39344252)
But intuitively efficiency per passenger should only be the binding metric if you are not capacity constrained. ie it may be economical to fly four-engine planes with nearly twice the number of passengers, than not meeting the demand on a route because it is saturated.
Re:Why it's so hard to build new commercial aircraft by bobthepanda on Monday February 12, 2024 @07:52AM (#39344238)
A380 also ended up having too much dead weight to be useful for freight.

We will probably see a double decker if only because the Middle Eastern megahub airlines need it for their business models to work.