Pedestrian fatalities - they happen when drivers speed, run red lights, hit pedestrians in crossings while turning. Self-driving cars will probably eliminate 90% of these. Same for people who are killed on bikes.

With Motorcycles, I don't know. But I bet that at least half of these would also be eliminated if car drivers followed the rules.

They happen on class b highways at night. They often get hit from behind.

There are more than just human factors. Self driving cars can't control pedestrians or guarantee they will follow traffic laws or not be inebriated. Also weather happens and snow and ice change everything.

Self driving is not magic. Sensors have limitations, and can even just get dirty.

Drivers won't ever follow rules. Automaton that allows our even requires driver intervention will probably not offer any improvement in fatalities.

I think driver intervention will go down once you tell ppl they can just stay on their phones all the time.

A recent rider video in a Waymo car showed pretty outstanding handling of unpredictable pedestrian behavior. One example of pedestrians partly hidden and then darting across the path of the car from between parked cars; another of pedestrian making to dart through and not going through with it; another of pedestrians hesitating (or easy to confuse with hesitating). The response to potentially dangerous pedestrian situations was noticeable and impressive. IMO much better than many human drivers would have. The Waymo car was hyper-alert and taking in a lot of clues - absolutely at the level of a hyper-alert human.

Statistics I've seen have the pedestrian being inebriated in 40-50% of incidents. I know some scatter-brained people who have been hit multiple times while crossing intersections/parking lots/driveways - they just don't pay attention or look both ways. Self driving won't necessarily prevent those.

Most of them are though. People can’t get off their phones, they’re addicted. Every time I see a car swerving in front of me and I pass, they’re on their phone. We have to figure out self driving cars because humans can’t disconnect and focus on their multi-ton vehicle.

You see even more as a motorcyclist because you have a direct view into vehicles.

In Germany it's honestly not that bad, but a lot of people text as red lights.

Many pedestrians (and maybe car) deaths are fentanyl related, at least in my area. On north Aurora in Seattle, it’s common to be the non-first car going through a green light and all of a sudden a unhoused neighbor really high will walk right out in front of you. A lot of those people die. North Aurora has abnormally high pedestrian fatalities, but they are mostly not related to drivers on their phones.

No idea if self driving cars would improve things much. Maybe their constant diligence would prevent these deaths.

Those deaths I heard about in the past year were all due to careless car drivers. Maybe it's different in the US.

You might want to look into the, more deeply. Anti-car advocates (here ant least) are lumping in “high” pedestrians deaths with the cases you are expecting, to inflate their case of an increase due to traditional distracted driving. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the increase in pedestrian deaths corresponds to the same timeline as the current fentanyl epidemic. But you have to go case by case to see where your local increase is coming from.

I see your point but I am not sure where you are going with this?

Even if only 50% of the pedestrians killed were sober - isn't that enough of a crisis to act?

1500 children younger than 14 years died in traffic in the US in 2021.

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/motor-vehicle/overview/age-group....

It’s the difference between saying “the crisis is getting worse!” And “we have a new crisis to deal with!”

Also, understanding the components of the problem lead to you know, figuring out how to fix it, eg:

https://www.kuow.org/stories/pedestrian-deaths-climb-in-seat...

I said this many times in other posts lately, but if Americans wanted to get serious about this problem, they would need a multi-faceted approach like the Dutch rather than just hoping drivers do the right thing (without focusing on road redesigns or pedestrian behavior also).