Re:IOS app success is a lottery: 60% (or more) of developers...
by raverbashing on Saturday May 05, 2012 @09:40AM
(#3932092)
These are actually very good odds
"risk" is actually probability x payoff (for one event like a bet on throwing a dice) If it's bigger than 1, congratulations.
In this case you would have something like Integral(payoff x probability,dprobability,0,1) (sorry about this syntax)
For a real probability distribution, this means you have a 40% chance of breaking-off or do better
The second issue is that your risk is (very) limited. It's cost of equipment + dev licence + cost of your time + 3rd parties
It's not like the risk of cutting the wrong wire in a bomb about to go off.
Most of the risk, I assure from experience, is not getting to the store in the first place. That is, not finishing the product, or coming up with something bad
"risk" is actually probability x payoff (for one event like a bet on throwing a dice) If it's bigger than 1, congratulations.
In this case you would have something like Integral(payoff x probability,dprobability,0,1) (sorry about this syntax)
For a real probability distribution, this means you have a 40% chance of breaking-off or do better
The second issue is that your risk is (very) limited. It's cost of equipment + dev licence + cost of your time + 3rd parties
It's not like the risk of cutting the wrong wire in a bomb about to go off.
Most of the risk, I assure from experience, is not getting to the store in the first place. That is, not finishing the product, or coming up with something bad