Which is still way better than any lottery I've heard of.

I'm not sure that's true. http://users.stat.umn.edu/~geyer/lottery/

Summing up our conclusions, it's much better to play in a week with a big jackpot than a small one (duh!) but even in a week with a near record jackpot (second largest in history) the lottery is only almost but not quite a break even proposition.

Interesting, but this does not mean a 40% (or better) chance of break-even.

Scratch-offs? Certainly the payout isn't as great, but not all of the 40% is hitting a big jackpot either.

Really? Because if so I'd be happy to sell you lottery tickets in which you have a forty percent chance of breaking even...

Yes, that's why the state you live in is happy to sell you lottery tickets. There's a sucker born every minute.

Mathematically, I agree. Psychologically, many people are paying for the fantasy and it may be what helps them cope with an otherwise pretty tough life. The idea/fantasy that "all this could change one day thanks to the lottery" may very well be worth the ticket price to those people. I'll hold my judgment and not call them suckers on this basis.

These are actually very good odds

"risk" is actually probability x payoff (for one event like a bet on throwing a dice) If it's bigger than 1, congratulations.

In this case you would have something like Integral(payoff x probability,dprobability,0,1) (sorry about this syntax)

For a real probability distribution, this means you have a 40% chance of breaking-off or do better

The second issue is that your risk is (very) limited. It's cost of equipment + dev licence + cost of your time + 3rd parties

It's not like the risk of cutting the wrong wire in a bomb about to go off.

Most of the risk, I assure from experience, is not getting to the store in the first place. That is, not finishing the product, or coming up with something bad