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Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by mrandish on Friday February 09, 2024 @03:15PM (#39319958)
$5 to $7 Trillion? Developing cutting edge chip fabrication technologies is insanely expensive but that number still strikes me as far too high. Unfortunately, the article doesn't go into any detail on the allocation of funds for a capital raise that unprecedentedly massive. I don't doubt that Altman may have cited that range, my skepticism is more centered on the practical possibility of productively putting that much money to work in a relevant startup time frame (~five years). Maybe there's missing relevant detail, like perhaps he was referencing a cumulative total spend over a decade or longer.

Just for comparison TSMC's market cap is ~$500B, ASML (who makes the cutting edge fab machines) is ~$350B. NVidia itself is ~$1.7T but that also includes non-AI things. Even if you include buying smaller players in addition to those, you could theoretically outright own the entire relevant market for less than $3T. And that's at full de-risked, retail public market price in a very frothy time period. The new venture cost should be less, otherwise investors would be wiser to just buy the existing players with all their IP, proven know-how and market momentum.

Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by riversflow on Friday February 09, 2024 @03:58PM (#39320471)
I mean I think the sales pitch in this case is literally, “Burn an enormous pile of (oil) money, to gain a large but smaller pile of (chip) money”
Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by sofixa on Friday February 09, 2024 @04:08PM (#39320573)
> “Burn an enormous pile of (oil) money, to gain a large but smaller pile of (chip) money”

But continue having that pile of (chip) money after the oil and gas money runs out (either due to decarbonisation or due literally the resources running out).

Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by consumer451 on Friday February 09, 2024 @05:27PM (#39321270)
Let's assume it works. So then ultra-religious authoritarians own part of AGI.

Sounds great!?

Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by jacooper on Friday February 09, 2024 @05:53PM (#39321488)
It really doesn't change much.
Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by consumer451 on Friday February 09, 2024 @05:57PM (#39321532)
Please explain. People are upset about "woke" ChatGPT, because they have the comfort of that first-world problem.

Thing is, it can actually get much worse than optimizing for inclusion. Do we really want Sharia authoritarian AGI?

Or am I misunderstanding what you are saying with your terse reply?

Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by lvh on Friday February 09, 2024 @06:30PM (#39321804)
We're talking about chips: stuff optimized for inference and training. It may have a lot of memory, it may be able to perform a lot of operations, but it would be difficult for it to enforce high-level concepts like "woke ChatGPT".
Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by consumer451 on Friday February 09, 2024 @06:34PM (#39321838)
Are you telling me that the investors who give sama $trillions don't expect influence on the final product?

Isn't this the definition of soft power?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_power

When NVIDIA sells GH200s to OpenAI, they expect nothing beyond the transaction. That's very different from getting trillions of dollars in investment from somebody to build chip fabs, etc.

Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by jacooper on Saturday February 10, 2024 @01:09PM (#39328631)
I meant that the "first world" isn't as fair as you think it is, this should be especially clear now.
Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by jaxson999 on Saturday February 10, 2024 @09:51AM (#39326516)
Oil money has openly said they want to diversify.

Hysterical to me people on here in other threads would be knocking Altman for trying to raise huge money from people with huge money who have literally made it a goal to diversify into other areas.

What a moron.

Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by anon373839 on Friday February 09, 2024 @05:50PM (#39321469)
Not to mention, you can’t just throw a large pile of money somewhere and create another ASML. It took them decades to get EUV working, as that tech is insanely sensitive and complex.
Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by ojosilva on Friday February 09, 2024 @07:36PM (#39322252)
Unless you are outright buying some of their key people and their secrets. Or instead just licensing the tech from ASML. It would be a quick buck for ASML with little downside.
Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by itishappy on Friday February 09, 2024 @06:06PM (#39321607)
$7T is the total volume of semiconductor sales over the past 20 years.

https://www.wsts.org/

$7T would buy more than 100 modern fabs. (TSMC has 4.)

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/navigating-the-semicon...

$7T would buy 20 thousand high-NA EUV machines from ASML.

https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/cpus/asml-ships-g...

$7T would fund both the Apollo and Artemis programs 20 times over. (In today's dollars.)

https://www.space.com/nasa-artemis-moon-program-93-billion-2...

$7T is the total volume of trade entering and exiting the US per year.

https://ustr.gov/countries-regions

$7T is the GDP of South America and Africa combined.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_South_America

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Africa

Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by digdugdirk on Friday February 09, 2024 @08:39PM (#39322665)
Thank you for that. What a delightful dash of context.
Re:Sam Altman seeking trillions for AI chip fabrication from... by theandrewbailey on Friday February 09, 2024 @07:37PM (#39322266)
Apple and Microsoft are $3 trillion each, and they don't have fabs. If anyone has good reasons for getting into semiconductor manufacturing and has the pockets to do so, it's them, but they aren't. I'm pretty sure that it has something to do with risk, not money.