Re:Apple releases MGIE, an AI-based image editing model
by filmgirlcw on Thursday February 08, 2024 @04:08PM
(#39307722)
I mean, if we're talking right now -- it absolutely has not. IDC predicts ~12 million AR/VR headset shipments in 2024, which is up 46% from 2023 (which was down 8.3% from 2022) but the Apple Watch, even though it had massive sales declines in 2023, was estimated to have sold 36-38 million units in 2023 [2]. Its wearables category did $39 billion in revenue in fiscal year 2023, which analysts estimate about half is attributable to Apple Watch.
So right now, the entire AR/VR category is expected to ship 1/3 of the number of units of just the Apple Watch. Even if Apple sells 180,000 AVPs all with an MSRP of $4000 (so I'm being extra generous here), that's only $720m in revenue, or less than 3.7% of Apple Watch sales.
And that doesn't even factor in all the Apple Watch units that are in use, which realistically, is probably 125 - 150 million units.
Does that mean AVP or headsets like it won't ever achieve Apple Watch-like sales or adoption? Not at all. But it certainly isn't now and it's probably doing the category a disservice to expect it to reach those heights anytime soon, let alone pretend that just because awareness is super high that sales are guaranteed to follow.
So right now, the entire AR/VR category is expected to ship 1/3 of the number of units of just the Apple Watch. Even if Apple sells 180,000 AVPs all with an MSRP of $4000 (so I'm being extra generous here), that's only $720m in revenue, or less than 3.7% of Apple Watch sales.
And that doesn't even factor in all the Apple Watch units that are in use, which realistically, is probably 125 - 150 million units.
Does that mean AVP or headsets like it won't ever achieve Apple Watch-like sales or adoption? Not at all. But it certainly isn't now and it's probably doing the category a disservice to expect it to reach those heights anytime soon, let alone pretend that just because awareness is super high that sales are guaranteed to follow.
[1]: https://www.idc.com/promo/arvr [2]: https://medium.com/@mingchikuo/apple-watch-estimates-and-pre...