Re:TSMC to build second Japan chip factory, raising investme...
by macintux on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @01:17PM
(#39292089)
Many leaders have discovered that war against an external enemy is a powerful unifier, at least in the short to medium term. I would never assume that Xi won’t eventually take advantage of that.
Re:TSMC to build second Japan chip factory, raising investme...
by ethbr1 on Wednesday February 07, 2024 @01:28PM
(#39292244)
Honestly, Russia invading Ukraine, the global economic response to Russia, and China seeing all of that... probably saved Taiwan.
China doesn't have the natural resource base within its borders (they're digging up their iron ore reserves faster than any country, and they have to import oil) that Russia does.
Consequently, economic sanctions slow their economy down a lot faster than Russia's.
War may be an internal unifier... but unemployment, poverty, and scarcity is a rapid internal disintegrator.
China's calculus changes if they have to strike Japanese and Philippine sovereign territory (even if it's hosting US forces) in order to accomplish their goals.
And it's unclear if even Xi is willing to send as many ships and bodies as it would take to the bottom of Taiwanese straits to get an invasion force across. (Which then faces a guerrilla insurgency in mountainous terrain)
If Xi sees Taiwan as a gateway to Pacific hegemony, maybe that math is worth it...
But asking a populace to support that in the face of economic weakness and high youth unemployment is a tall order. The COVID lockdown riots demonstrated that even China's social control is a fine line.