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A comment on A confusing probability question: Red and Green Balls in an Urn. Parent comment
But if there is a green ball, it is unlikely to be the last picked. So the fact that you saw 99 red balls makes it unlikely there is a green ball.
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But if there is a green ball, it is unlikely to be the last picked. So the fact that you saw 99 red balls makes it unlikely there is a green ball.