Re:Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem
by pragmar on Monday January 29, 2024 @03:47PM
(#39182324)
I remember Nate Silver speaking of the golden age of online poker, when amateurs were the dominant audience, and a decent (non-pro) strategy player could make a living. Word got out, and just like that, it was over.
Re:Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem
by lkbm on Monday January 29, 2024 @03:31PM
(#39182078)
This is something a number of people do on PredictIt, since that one does have a conservative lean. It takes a lot more than the individual limit to fully price correct, though.
I personally haven't maxed out on it (I think the limit is $800), but I've got a few hundred bet that Biden will be the Dem nominee / that Newsome won't be.
Not sure why we don't have more people picking up the free money, but given that I haven't picked up a much as I possibly can, I'm not one to criticize.
Re:Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem
by zzzeek on Monday January 29, 2024 @04:08PM
(#39182620)
sure, and thanks for agreeing with my premise! but liberals are not really into stupid gambling games, so this "market" is inherently stocked with a limited supply of mindshare
Re:Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem
by polytropos2 on Monday January 29, 2024 @05:12PM
(#39183459)
mindshare on this site would probably vastly expand after you delete your account
So that would be a good place to make money, and ultimately make these markets better at predicting.