My impression was this had already started a while back.

There has been evidence that it has been occurring, but China is notoriously hostile to citizens who default on financial obligations, so I would expect with liquidation proceeding you'll see a lot more folks decide to stop making payments than those with a more activist appetite previously.

> ANZ’s senior China economist Betty Wang believes the scale of the problem is much bigger. She estimates that 1.5 trillion yuan ($223 billion) of mortgage loans, or 4% of banks’ total outstanding mortgage loans, could be affected by the movement.

> “What concerns us is if more home buyers cease payment, the spreading trend will not only threaten the health of the financial system but also create social issues amid the current economic downturn,” she wrote in a report on Thursday.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/economy/china-property-crisis... (2022)

And the reserve requirements of banks were just lowered to help spur growth:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-will-cut-banks-res...

Pushing the string! Can't win against demographics, young folks can't find jobs [1] and China got old fast [2]. 30% of GDP is domestic real estate that is about to fall off a cliff [3].

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/25/china-youth-unemployment-wil...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aging_of_China

[3] https://www.axios.com/2023/10/11/chart-chinas-real-estate-st...

I'm not sure why won't the old ones buy units for the young ones. Hey, they can even pool!

They do. it is said that when two people get married, they suck all the savings of the parents from both sides of the family (mostly men's side), as well as the savings of the bride/groom (mostly man), to put down deposit for one house. then it's up to the man of the house to take care of 4 parents, as well as the wife and kids. And you can imagine what happens when the man realizes the house they bought will never be finished, and is worth 50% what they bought

I expect both pairs of parents to also have their own homes already. So, inheritance-worthy.

However, knowing asian predisposition to longevity, it may not quite pan out in the end.

The parents are typically living in farming community, with old/run down houses. Which the children dread moving back to, since there is no money nor future.