You’d never put your whole nut into treasuries unless you wanted to get killed by inflation. You’re looking at a 50 year retirement if you’re in your 30s.

“4%” (Trinity study style I mean) is the pop culture number that accommodates down markets and inflation over 50 years, to a first approximation.

Definitely not, though I was just demonstrating the kind of cashflow you can get from a (default) risk free bond.

The days of buying an index and selling 4%/year being your best strategy are past. At least until/when yields decline again.

If you're strategic and barbell your portfolio somewhat, you can generate around 10% with moderate risk (and this is 10% distributions/dividends, not including any capital gains).

The best outcome for retirees is to build a solid income portfolio and then hope that inflation really does subside and valuation multiples compress again, which would leave you with significant capital gains while portfolio income is preserved.

If inflation resurges or remains moderately high, capital gains will be more limited.

Agreed, this is certainly reasonable. 4% isn’t and shouldn’t be taken as particularly good, it just works and it’s what a lucky retiree might know about.