True to a large degree. The key is "grunt" work. The definition of that varies though. New services are "grunt" for some, Knowledge base based production support is "grunt". The challenge is this , but from what we can see, it is a huge factor

Just a random estimation but I'd say LLMs make me at least 5x more productive.

Senior developers detect junior developers by how blown away by llms are. For instance, I can tell you a junior dev, or not a dev, by reading your comment.

Interesting. While I wear your grading me as a junior dev with pride, I think the opposite is true. Junior devs simply don't know enough and have not had enough experience to appreciate just how disruptive LLMs already have become. Most of the senior devs I know see this breakthrough in our industry as genuinely disruptive and without precedent. When I say "I am amazed how much more productive I have become", I have used a plethora of software (and other) tools to increase productivity over the past decades, and LLMs are the first tool I have encountered that are more profitable to use than simply outsourcing or employing additional expertise.