News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by ctdonath on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @03:20PM (#3885843)
Why is _growth_ so paramount? There comes a point where maintaining stability seems more sensible - and having a user base of 13% of the world's population sounds like such a point. Obsession with gathering new users becomes a matter of diminishing returns, but neglecting existing users can become an exponential problem (see MySpace). Keep current membership happy and engaged; long-term growth will follow. I remember some story about a goose and golden eggs...
Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by bonafidehan on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @03:42PM (#3885966)
Growth is so important because that's the reason something is a good investment vehicle. You invest because you want to increase the amount of money you put in, not keep it the same.

Bottom line, the article is talking about growth in revenue and income. The article outlines that growth can come by two ways: growth in the number of users and the growth in $/user. It claims that the former has little upside because of how large Facebook already is. It raises questions about the latter.

Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by ArtB on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @03:48PM (#3885999)
Growth could be flat and if they paid dividends and stock price stayed flat as well I'd be perfectly happy to buy that stock.
Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by damoncali on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @04:18PM (#3886135)
You would. But at a much lower price. Do the math on the profit per share of facebook - assuming they pay it all out in dividends. It's tiny.
Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by awakeasleep on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @04:07PM (#3886084)
From what I've read, Facebook isn't really interested in cultivating investment. Look at the small float, and Mark Z's firm control of the company with over 50% ownership.

In many ways, for the man on the street Facebook isn't a good investment. At the same time, it doesn't seem to be a goal of management to create a company that entices investors. See the line "we make money to create a better product, not create products to make money."

Doesn't that say it all?

Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by bonafidehan on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @05:16PM (#3886356)
The value of equity for a public company isn't a metric that only investors care about. It is the most comprehensive measure of a public company's well-being. It describes how much money the company is making and it predicts how much money the company is expected to make in the future.

E.g., suppose Facebook's equity takes a significant decline in value on the public market: employees become unhappy as the equity component of their compensation declines; Facebook's ability to make large acquisitions becomes more expenseive when its stock is worth less; and its ability to raise capital diminshes because it's more expensive to borrow exactly because their financials aren't as good, according to their stock price.

I personally believe that the long-term goals of investors and founders are very well-aligned. I believe that the common statment by founders nowadays, that they are building a company not for their investors but for their users, will produce the long-term financial results that investors want. It's the short-term goals of investors that conflict with that.

In short, equity isn't this isolated thing that can be happily ignored. It's tied to everything.

Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by Gormo on Wednesday April 25, 2012 @11:46AM (#3889566)
Then why the IPO, except as an exit strategy for the founders?

So Zuckerberg cashes out at Facebook's peak, leaving the subsequent 'investors' with nowhere to go but down. I wouldn't necessarily put that intention past Zuckerberg, and perhaps a Facebook collapse would be a good thing for openness and interoperability on the web, but isn't it a bit of a self-defeating strategy? Can the hype machine generate enough naive investors to generate a substantial cash-out?

Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by hexis on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @03:34PM (#3885924)
Growth is the concern of investors. They want multiples of their investment, and hence want the company to grow.
Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by ctdonath on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @07:18PM (#3886826)
To clarify: growth is great, don't get me wrong, but there's a point where you just start running out of market and need to focus on stability & maintenance. When you've got over 10% of the world's population signed up and 5% using the non-essential service daily, focus on efficiency and loyalty; growth becomes the follow instead of the lead.

I'm surprised so little is made of dividends. Growth has faster and sexier return, but will fail sooner than long-term steady well-maintained income. $5/user may not be much, but it's better than $4 and falling. Focus on maintaining long term loyalty; there are a lot of newcomers bent on seducing current users away.

Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by damoncali on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @04:14PM (#3886119)
Because the value of the company is tied very strongly to its growth rate.

The present value of a perpetual annuity (to keep things simple) is C/r where C is the recurring payment you get, and r is the discount rate (or risk inherent in actually getting C). Think of r as an interest rate- you demand a higher one if you invest in a risky company.

Throw in growth and it becomes C/(r-g) where g is the growth rate. As you can see, g is very, very important. Valuing a company is much more complex, but the same basic truth holds - growth is a huge contributor to value.

Re:What if Facebook isn’t so special after all? by sek on Tuesday April 24, 2012 @03:53PM (#3886020)
If Facebook stagnates, their IPO and future earnings wouldn't generate enough cash to compete with Google. This is the long term view.