News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:The Forecasting Fallacy by altdataseller on Sunday December 31, 2023 @10:45AM (#38824805)
Both of those examples have been exploited to death and no longer are profitable
Re:The Forecasting Fallacy by cnewey on Sunday December 31, 2023 @10:49AM (#38824836)
If the parent had discovered a viable and profitable trading strategy, do you think they would share it here?
Re:The Forecasting Fallacy by cesaref on Sunday December 31, 2023 @06:06PM (#38828302)
I've been out of the loop for a number of years, but I believe there's a serious amount of ML being thrown at predicting time series, so this probably gives you an idea of how money is being made.

I've no idea what the current models look like. I imagine it was all RNNs but maybe transformers have taken over?

Re:The Forecasting Fallacy by Zolde on Sunday December 31, 2023 @11:07AM (#38824987)
If a feature is used by many and has a predictable impact on their behavior it becomes profitable again.

If you act faster on the same feature as everyone else, or you predict the feature accurately, you can anticipate what the market will do in response.

The market often overreacts to new data. So if satellite imagery shows steep decline in parked cars, the stock will be predictably oversold. You can then take a contrarian position (buy the stock before it reverses to the mean).

Some commonly used features by popular public trading bots create predictable market movements, no matter if the feature itself is long-term informative/profitable.

Re:The Forecasting Fallacy by WJW on Sunday December 31, 2023 @10:50AM (#38824840)
True, but they were just meant as easy examples of non-HFT hedge fund strategies.
Re:The Forecasting Fallacy by paulpauper on Sunday December 31, 2023 @12:18PM (#38825599)
yeah but but his point is that hedge funds do things that are non-obvious to extract alpha