the 2-and-20 compensation model for fund managers incentivizes these boom/bust cycles; you need the markups to raise the next bigger fund so you can lock in and grow your 2% yearly fee. When it all crashes down, everyone can say "wasnt just me, nobody could have seen this coming" and the LP has little alternative. The point is not for a projection to be accurate, the point is to say something that various stakeholders believe (and ideally then go work themselves up into a big money orgy, which is where the big exit money is made by skilled players)

See also:

"Mimetic Societies. The leaders of mimetic societies create rituals mimicking some aspects of what they observe having worked in the past. Not because they think it might work, but because their followers think so." https://x.com/scottastevenson/status/1729914687846769061?s=2...