Re:The housing shortage is larger than you think
by HDThoreaun on Wednesday December 20, 2023 @06:01AM
(#38707316)
Speculation only works when the asset is supply constrained. China's problem is that they've moved 600 million people from rural areas to urban in the last 70 years.
Re:The housing shortage is larger than you think
by seanmcdirmid on Wednesday December 20, 2023 @10:09AM
(#38709472)
They have enough housing for twice their population now, supply isn’t the constraint.
Re:The housing shortage is larger than you think
by LargeTomato on Wednesday December 20, 2023 @10:26AM
(#38709676)
The original argument mentioned China as a country that does not have a housing shortage. Somehow you just decided that the poster is suggesting we transition our system to a complete free for all, unregulated market. It's unclear why or how you arrived at that conclusion.
Also, the Chinese have been simulating the housing sector to encourage domestic growth. The Chinese housing sector did not grow out of control just due to lack of regulation. It was also financial stimulus and incentives to encourage building.
So, you just pounced on that other commenter, accused them of something they didn't say, and despite believing that you understand the Chinese housing market you actually have no clue. You are literally the Dunning Kruger effect manifest info a hacker news commenter.
Re:The housing shortage is larger than you think
by seanmcdirmid on Wednesday December 20, 2023 @12:14PM
(#38710956)
No ad hominems please, this isn’t Reddit.
I said the problem in China is speculation, they don’t have a housing shortage. You can’t just build your way out of a housing problem if the demand signals are messed up.
We already rely on market forces to ensure that everyone doesn’t just move to one of a few popular cities. We don’t just need more housing, we need them specifically in Seattle, SF, LA, Denver, Manhattan places where people want to live. I still don’t see how SF achieving Manhattan density would cause its prices not to be Manhattan comparable. Something else is going on with increased supply having the ability to induce even more demand.
Overbuilding is also a danger. Berlin had excess capacity of housing and work space for a couple of decades before demand could fill it. Just because there is demand today doesn’t mean there will be demand when your project is finished, eg interest rate increases can put a damper on speculative demand. A Japanese style mega property crash is something no one wants to deal with.