> So the thing people actually care about is the risk of bad outcome, not the actual data itself.

It's more than that. Privacy affects the psychological context for daily activity and alters behavior, sometimes subtly, sometimes overty. If a person knows they have no privacy, they will go about life completely differently, and they will think about life completely differently.

Privacy is a freedom-of-thought, freedom-of-action, and also freedom-from-anxiety consideration.