You certainly have a point there, but I also remember being absolutely wrong about the Minecraft aquisition which has now paid for itself multiple times.

Your math doesn't have to work out, even if it's solid.

Sometimes it's the case that you do 10 investments, each $1b where one makes you $100b. But in hindsight the 9 looked stupid, but at the time you were using the same strategy to do all the 10 investments.

Not sure if it's case with Joe Rogan, but just how sometimes there's a lot of failure, while the strategy itself is solid.

I will never understand why that idiot was hired as a CEO in the first place.

I think, sometimes, buying the competition and killing it is the intended effect. Especially if you're as anti-competitive as Microsoft.