Software technology moves when we figure out new ways of doing software that bring some kind of advantage. If no one is finding new ways to do software that have any purpose, technology will stop moving. Physical reality doesn't really have anything to do with it - we're limited by human ingenuity, and possibly by the mathematical space of algorithms (though that's likely to be much larger).

For an example of this happening in a field, look at the glacial pace of advancement in theoretical physics for the last few decades, compared to 1900s. Or at the pace of development in physics in general in the centuries before.

Software trends seems to repeat themselves as we forget the lessons learned a decade ago. It’s more like fashion, in that sense.